2007-12-06-皮尤-Iowa,_NH_Voters_Heavily_Courted,_Dems_Have_Edge_in_Personal_Contact_13页_317kb

Summary of the 2007 Presidential Campaign Survey

Core Content

This document presents findings from a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in collaboration with the Associated Press, focusing on voter engagement and campaign activities in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, as well as nationally. The survey highlights the prevalence of campaign outreach, voter interest, and the role of digital media in the 2008 presidential election.

Main Points

1. Robo-Calls and Personal Contact

• Robo-calls are pervasive: Over 80% of likely voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have received pre-recorded campaign calls.
• Democrats have more personal contact: A higher percentage of Democratic voters than Republican voters in both states have received personal phone calls or home visits from campaign representatives.
  • In Iowa: 65% of Democrats vs. 46% of Republicans received personal calls.
  • In New Hampshire: 56% of Democrats vs. 45% of Republicans received personal calls.
  • In Iowa: 33% of Democrats vs. 8% of Republicans received home visits.
  • In New Hampshire: 30% of Democrats vs. 15% of Republicans received home visits.
• Campaign fatigue is low: Most voters in Iowa and New Hampshire find the campaign interesting, with 71% in Iowa and 57% in New Hampshire indicating this.

2. Differences in Campaign Engagement

• Partisan differences: Democrats are more likely to be contacted personally than Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire.
• South Carolina lags: Campaign activity in South Carolina is less intense compared to Iowa and New Hampshire, with lower rates of personal contact, mail, and email.

3. Online Engagement

• Video clips and websites: About a third of likely voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have watched political videos or visited candidate websites.
• Social media use: A small percentage of voters have used social networking sites like Facebook and MySpace for campaign information.
• No significant partisan gap: Both Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to engage with online campaign activities.

4. Age Gap in Online Political Activity

• Younger voters more engaged: Voters aged 18–34 are more likely to watch political videos and visit social media sites than older voters.
• Social media usage: 17% of national likely voters aged 18–34 have visited social networking sites for campaign information, compared to less than 1% of voters aged 65+.

5. Campaign Interest and Attitudes

• Interest in the campaign: Most voters in Iowa and New Hampshire find the campaign interesting, with 77% of Iowa Democrats and 60% of New Hampshire Republicans expressing this.
• Commercials viewed negatively: Only about 10% of voters in the early states find campaign commercials very helpful, while most find them not too or not at all helpful.
• News and debates are more helpful: A significant portion of voters consider news coverage and debates as helpful in their decision-making process.

6. Increased Democratic Engagement

• More events attended: A higher percentage of Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have attended campaign events compared to four years ago.
• More website visits: Democratic voters in these states have increased their website visits and email engagement with campaigns.

7. Polling Participation

• Low national polling participation: Only 7% of likely voters nationwide have participated in other polls about the presidential campaign.
• Higher participation in early states: In Iowa and New Hampshire, around 30% of likely voters have participated in other campaign surveys.

Key Information

• Survey Methodology:
  • The national survey included 915 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of ±3.5%.
  • State surveys included 5,462 adults in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, with margins of error ranging from ±3.5% to ±4%.
• Timeframe: Surveys were conducted from November 7–25, 2007, with data on likely voters for the 2008 presidential election.
• Focus on early states: The survey highlights the heightened campaign activity in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are key early primary states.

Tables Summary

Table 1: Personal Contact in Iowa and New Hampshire

Table 2: Campaign Activity by State

Table 3: Online Political Activity

Table 4: Age Gap in Online Political Activity

Conclusion

The survey underscores the significant campaign activity in Iowa and New Hampshire, with Democrats receiving more personal contact than Republicans. Voters generally find news and debates helpful but are less engaged with campaign commercials. The role of digital media is growing, though primarily among younger voters. Campaign interest remains high in early states, with no signs of fatigue.