2025-06-03-Jefferies-辉瑞（PFE）_辉瑞_关于PDL1V_ADC_+帕博利珠单抗联合疗法在一线头颈部鳞状细胞癌中的数据思考_9页_630kb

Pfizer Equity Research Summary

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Ticker: PFE
• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: $33.00, a 41% increase from the current price.

Study Overview

• Focus: PD-L1V ADC combined with pembrolizumab (pembro) in first-line HNSCC (Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma) with no prior anti-PD(L)1 therapy.
• Key outcome: ORR (Overall Response Rate) of ~67% at doses of 1.25-1.5mg/kg, supporting the potential for synergy. DCR (Disease Control Rate) was 75-83%.

Key Insights from Data

• ORR and mPFS:
  • Comparable to MRUS/Bicara ADCs in a similar population (CPS>1), but with numerically lower mPFS (5.6 months vs 7-9 months for comparators) due to early follow-up and small N=14 cohort.
  • ORR was similar, but data might improve with longer follow-up.
• Safety Profile:
  • G3+ AEs (Grade 3+ Adverse Events) were lower (29%) compared to ~40% in MRUS/Bicara, suggesting potentially better tolerability.
  • PK data indicates reduced MMAE Cmax due to pembro, indicating a better treatment window and potential for dose escalation.

Analyst Commentary

• Synergy between MMAE payload (higher cytotoxicity) and pembro appears promising, but not yet conclusively proven from this early data.
• HPV stratification showed higher ORR in HPV+ patients (67% vs. 27-50% reported elsewhere), but generally, comparators do worse in HPV+ settings.
• PFS remains uncertain and could improve with future data.

Overall Conclusion

• Data shows initial promise in ORR and better safety vs comps, but limitations include small N and immature PFS. Positive trends suggest potential for further analysis at higher N. The buy rating reflects this potential and valuation target support.