20260617-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_7页_791kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Fixed Income Daily Market Update

• Secondary Market Movements:

  • PKX/DAESEC/HANFGI/NHSECS widened 2-4bps ahead of new USD issuance.
  • TENCNT 36/46 widened 1bp.
  • NWDEVL 6.25 Perp edged 0.7pt higher.
  • SOFTBK 28 gained 0.4pt.
  • EHICAR 26/LNGFOR 29 lost 0.3-0.4pt.

• CHEDUC 29 Valuation:

  • The new CHEDUC 29 bond widened 5bps from RO at T+190.
  • CMBI views the valuation as unattractive due to weaker trading liquidity and higher vulnerability to policy shifts.
  • Compared to Chinese BBB-rated peers like CNMDHL 30 (YTW 5.2%), the risk-adjusted return profile is less favorable.
  • ZHOSHK 28 is highlighted as a more attractive option with a YTW of 8.4%.
  • MEITUA 30-31 and XIAOMI 30-31 are also noted for their potential among Chinese TMT BBB-rated issuers.

• Other Issuers:

  • KORGAS 29-31s widened 3-4bps from ROs.
  • HYNMTR 28-29s tightened 2-3bps from T+55 and T+70, respectively.
  • MITCO 31s tightened 5bps from RO at T+47, while MITCO 36s widened 1bp.
  • In HK, NDPAPE 14 Perp lost 0.5pt, and Nine Dragons Paper issued a RMB2bn (cUSD295.4mn) 3-year syndicated loan.
  • FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.1pt firmer.
  • In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-19/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 27-29 had mixed performance.
  • In JP, NOMURA 7 Perp edged 0.2pt higher.
  • SOFTBKs were 0.5pt lower to 0.1pt higher.
  • In SE Asian space, VEDLN 28-33s traded 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher.
  • GLPSPs/GLPCHI were down 0.1-0.4pt.
  • PTTGC Perps lost 0.2pt.
  • In AT1 space, HSBC 7 Perp edged 0.8pt higher, and STANLN 7 Perp gained 0.2pt.
  • BACR 4.375 Perp and ACAFP 4.75 Perp leaked 0.5pt.

Top Movers

Macro News Recap

• U.S. Markets:
  • S&P 500: -0.57%
  • Dow Jones: +0.64%
  • Nasdaq: -1.15%
• U.S. Treasury Yields:
  • 2-year: 4.05%
  • 5-year: 4.16%
  • 10-year: 4.43%
  • 30-year: 4.93%

Key Economic Insights

• China's Economy:

  • May data shows a more pronounced K-shaped economy, with export and AI-linked production still supporting growth, while domestic demand continues to weaken.
  • Industrial production rose slightly to 4.5% YoY, but construction-linked materials and consumer goods remained weak.
  • Retail sales fell 0.6% YoY, marking the first decline since late-2022.
  • Fixed asset investment (FAI) contracted further, with property investment being the largest drag.
  • CPI remained flat at 1.2% YoY, while core CPI edged down to 1.1% YoY.
  • PPI rose sharply to 3.9% YoY, driven by upstream sectors like oil, non-ferrous metals, and AI/electronics materials.

• Credit Data:

  • New TSF dropped 11.5% to RMB2.03trn, below market expectations.
  • Outstanding TSF growth slowed to a record low of 7.7% YoY.
  • New RMB loans fell to RMB520bn, supported mainly by bill financing.
  • Household and medium- to long-term corporate loans contracted.
  • M1 growth rose to 5.5% YoY, while M2 remained at 8.6% YoY.

• GDP Outlook:

  • CMBI expects China's GDP growth to slow from 5.0% in Q126 to 4.6% in Q226, with full-year growth moderating to 4.7%.
  • The K-shaped divergence is expected to persist, affecting equity performance.

• Property Market:

  • New home sales fell 13.1% in value terms, worsening from April.
  • Construction activity remained depressed, with new starts down 24.6% and completions down 19.9%.
  • Property prices declined in both new and existing homes, though tier-1 cities showed resilience.
  • The property downturn is expected to continue to weigh on durable consumption, local fiscal revenue, and private-sector credit appetite.

Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced)

Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline)

• No new offshore Asia new issues pipeline was reported today.

News and Market Color

• Onshore Primary Issuances:

  • 144 credit bonds issued yesterday with RMB155bn raised.
  • Month-to-date: 1,130 credit bonds issued with RMB1,301bn raised, a 43.8% yoy increase.

• Notable News:

  • BHP and Rio Tinto are seeking growth in India and Southeast Asia.
  • China Jinmao to acquire 51% of Tianjin residential project for RMB884.2mn.
  • SK Hynix plans up to USD66bn in shareholder returns post U.S. listing.
  • LG Electronics expected to generate KRW1tn (cUSD660.4mn) in initial revenue from chiller products in 2027.
  • Lifestyle Int'l secured HKD6.4bn facility to refinance HKD6.8bn loan.
  • Vedanta Resources may price up to USD3.6bn in 144A/Reg S notes by 24 Jun'26.
  • Yuzhou plans to raise USD34mn through a sale-and-leaseback deal.

Author Certification

• CMBI or its affiliates have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in this report.
• The author certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• No trading or dealing in the stocks covered in the report occurred within 30 days prior to the report's issuance.
• The author does not have any financial interests in the companies covered.

Important Disclosures

• Risks:

  • Securities transactions involve risks.
  • The report is not tailored for individual investors.
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • Information is based on public data and not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.

• Disclaimer:

  • The report is intended solely for CMBI's clients and not for public distribution.
  • CMBI is not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report.
  • The report may contain recommendations or views that differ from CMBI's proprietary positions.

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  • The report is provided to UK recipients only if they fall under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order.
  • In the U.S., the report is only for major institutional investors.
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