> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CMBI Credit Commentary Summary ## Fixed Income Daily Market Update - **Secondary Market Movements**: - PKX/DAESEC/HANFGI/NHSECS widened 2-4bps ahead of new USD issuance. - TENCNT 36/46 widened 1bp. - NWDEVL 6.25 Perp edged 0.7pt higher. - SOFTBK 28 gained 0.4pt. - EHICAR 26/LNGFOR 29 lost 0.3-0.4pt. - **CHEDUC 29 Valuation**: - The new CHEDUC 29 bond widened 5bps from RO at T+190. - CMBI views the valuation as unattractive due to weaker trading liquidity and higher vulnerability to policy shifts. - Compared to Chinese BBB-rated peers like CNMDHL 30 (YTW 5.2%), the risk-adjusted return profile is less favorable. - ZHOSHK 28 is highlighted as a more attractive option with a YTW of 8.4%. - MEITUA 30-31 and XIAOMI 30-31 are also noted for their potential among Chinese TMT BBB-rated issuers. - **Other Issuers**: - KORGAS 29-31s widened 3-4bps from ROs. - HYNMTR 28-29s tightened 2-3bps from T+55 and T+70, respectively. - MITCO 31s tightened 5bps from RO at T+47, while MITCO 36s widened 1bp. - In HK, NDPAPE 14 Perp lost 0.5pt, and Nine Dragons Paper issued a RMB2bn (cUSD295.4mn) 3-year syndicated loan. - FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.1pt firmer. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-19/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 27-29 had mixed performance. - In JP, NOMURA 7 Perp edged 0.2pt higher. - SOFTBKs were 0.5pt lower to 0.1pt higher. - In SE Asian space, VEDLN 28-33s traded 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher. - GLPSPs/GLPCHI were down 0.1-0.4pt. - PTTGC Perps lost 0.2pt. - In AT1 space, HSBC 7 Perp edged 0.8pt higher, and STANLN 7 Perp gained 0.2pt. - BACR 4.375 Perp and ACAFP 4.75 Perp leaked 0.5pt. ## Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | |----------------|-------|--------| | HSBC 7 PERP | 102.8 | 0.8 | | CNPCCH 5.95 04/28/41 | 109.7 | 0.8 | | HAOHUA 4 3/4 06/19/49 | 90.7 | 0.7 | | XIAOMI 4.1 07/14/51 | 77.9 | 0.6 | | BABA 4.4 12/06/57 | 82.4 | 0.6 | | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | |---------------------|-------|--------| | KZOKZ 5 3/4 04/19/47 | 96.0 | -0.7 | | PMBROV 11 1/2 02/18/30 | 85.8 | -0.6 | | NDPAPE 14 PERP | 104.7 | -0.5 | | ACAFP 4 3/4 PERP | 97.1 | -0.5 | | BACR 4 3/8 PERP | 96.5 | -0.5 | ## Macro News Recap - **U.S. Markets**: - S&P 500: -0.57% - Dow Jones: +0.64% - Nasdaq: -1.15% - **U.S. Treasury Yields**: - 2-year: 4.05% - 5-year: 4.16% - 10-year: 4.43% - 30-year: 4.93% ## Key Economic Insights - **China's Economy**: - May data shows a more pronounced K-shaped economy, with export and AI-linked production still supporting growth, while domestic demand continues to weaken. - Industrial production rose slightly to 4.5% YoY, but construction-linked materials and consumer goods remained weak. - Retail sales fell 0.6% YoY, marking the first decline since late-2022. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) contracted further, with property investment being the largest drag. - CPI remained flat at 1.2% YoY, while core CPI edged down to 1.1% YoY. - PPI rose sharply to 3.9% YoY, driven by upstream sectors like oil, non-ferrous metals, and AI/electronics materials. - **Credit Data**: - New TSF dropped 11.5% to RMB2.03trn, below market expectations. - Outstanding TSF growth slowed to a record low of 7.7% YoY. - New RMB loans fell to RMB520bn, supported mainly by bill financing. - Household and medium- to long-term corporate loans contracted. - M1 growth rose to 5.5% YoY, while M2 remained at 8.6% YoY. - **GDP Outlook**: - CMBI expects China's GDP growth to slow from 5.0% in Q126 to 4.6% in Q226, with full-year growth moderating to 4.7%. - The K-shaped divergence is expected to persist, affecting equity performance. - **Property Market**: - New home sales fell 13.1% in value terms, worsening from April. - Construction activity remained depressed, with new starts down 24.6% and completions down 19.9%. - Property prices declined in both new and existing homes, though tier-1 cities showed resilience. - The property downturn is expected to continue to weigh on durable consumption, local fiscal revenue, and private-sector credit appetite. ## Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) | Issuer/Guarantor | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | |------------------|--------------|-------|--------|--------|----------------------| | China Education Group | 200 | 3yr | 5.625% | T+190 | -/BBB/- | | HDFC Bank | 750 | 5yr | 5.067% | T+90 | Baa3/BBB/- | | Republic of the Philippines | 550/1650 | 5.5yr/10yr | 4.625%/5.325% | T+55/T+92.5 | Baa2/BBB+/BBB | ## Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline) - No new offshore Asia new issues pipeline was reported today. ## News and Market Color - **Onshore Primary Issuances**: - 144 credit bonds issued yesterday with RMB155bn raised. - Month-to-date: 1,130 credit bonds issued with RMB1,301bn raised, a 43.8% yoy increase. - **Notable News**: - BHP and Rio Tinto are seeking growth in India and Southeast Asia. - China Jinmao to acquire 51% of Tianjin residential project for RMB884.2mn. - SK Hynix plans up to USD66bn in shareholder returns post U.S. listing. - LG Electronics expected to generate KRW1tn (cUSD660.4mn) in initial revenue from chiller products in 2027. - Lifestyle Int'l secured HKD6.4bn facility to refinance HKD6.8bn loan. - Vedanta Resources may price up to USD3.6bn in 144A/Reg S notes by 24 Jun'26. - Yuzhou plans to raise USD34mn through a sale-and-leaseback deal. ## Author Certification - CMBI or its affiliates have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in this report. - The author certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation. - No trading or dealing in the stocks covered in the report occurred within 30 days prior to the report's issuance. - The author does not have any financial interests in the companies covered. ## Important Disclosures - **Risks**: - Securities transactions involve risks. - The report is not tailored for individual investors. - Past performance does not guarantee future results. - Information is based on public data and not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. - **Disclaimer**: - The report is intended solely for CMBI's clients and not for public distribution. - CMBI is not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report. - The report may contain recommendations or views that differ from CMBI's proprietary positions. - **Legal Restrictions**: - The report is provided to UK recipients only if they fall under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order. - In the U.S., the report is only for major institutional investors. - In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser, and is subject to legal responsibilities.