2022-12-16-联合国贸易发展委员会-预计2022年全球贸易额达到创纪录32万亿美元_8页_1mb

Global trade reached a record high of approximately $32 trillion in 2022, driven by strong performance in the first half. However, growth turned negative during the second half of the year, with declining values for both goods and services in the fourth quarter outlook. This slowdown is attributed to factors such as geopolitical frictions, rising inflation, high energy prices, and concerns over global debt sustainability, which are expected to worsen in 2023. Despite nominal declines, trade volumes showed resilience, indicating sustained global demand. Services trade proved more robust than goods, with intermediate inputs and consumer goods prices continuing to rise, amplifying inflation worries.

Key elements for 2023 include potential improvements from logistics enhancements and new trade agreements, while risks like supply chain reshaping and the transition to a greener economy may alter trade patterns. Regional trends highlight mixed results, with sub-Saharan Africa showing strong growth but high volatility, and sectoral analyses pointing to vulnerabilities in specific areas like pharmaceuticals and communications equipment. Overall, the outlook suggests a slowing trade environment with negative factors dominating.