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Global Luxury Goods Summary: Key Takeaways from China

Core Content Overview

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of the luxury and fashion market in China, based on field visits to Hong Kong and Shanghai. It outlines key trends, challenges, and opportunities for global and local luxury brands, with a focus on consumer behavior, market dynamics, and investment implications.

Main Points

1. Chinese Luxury Demand

• Stabilisation from a weak base: The luxury market in China is stabilising, but the recovery remains highly polarised.
• Strong high-end spending: High-end consumers continue to spend on luxury goods, travel, and hospitality.
• Middle-class caution: Middle-income consumers are more selective and less willing to spend on big-ticket, logo-heavy items.

2. Hong Kong as a Bright Spot

• Tourist return: The return of tourists has supported local demand.
• Residential market: A firmer residential property market and rising transaction volumes contribute to a "feelgood" factor.
• Retail and hotel performance: 11 months of retail sales growth and improving hotel metrics are underpinning better discretionary spending and luxury demand.

3. Mainland Tier 1 Cities

• Early but uneven recovery: Tier 1 cities show early signs of improvement, driven by property stabilisation.
• Price recovery concentrated: Price recovery is mainly seen in top-tier prime locations, while mainstream areas and mall projects still face pressure.

4. Mall Oversupply and Consolidation

• Non-prime locations under pressure: The oversupply of malls and stores is weighing on weaker locations and formats.
• Consolidation trend: Luxury brands are closing underperforming stores and focusing on flagship locations in prime malls.

5. Brand Polarisation

• Strong brands thrive: Top brands like Hermès, Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Van Cleef & Arpels, and Swiss watchmakers are performing well.
• Weaker brands struggle: Tier 2 and Tier 3 brands are losing relevance and consumer mindshare.
• Strategic advantage: Strong brands are able to expand, hold prices, and invest in experiences, while weaker brands are reducing their retail presence.

6. "China for China" Strategy

• Localisation of strategy: Global brands are increasingly localising their offerings, storytelling, and clienteling.
• Examples of localisation:
  • Tailoring product and pricing to Mainland consumers.
  • Building WeChat-centric CRM systems.
  • Partnering with local KOLs and creating lifestyle ecosystems (cafés, museums, club-like spaces).
• Case study: The Louis in Shanghai was initiated by the local team, focusing on experiential and shareable touchpoints.

7. Rise of Local Brands

• Competing in key categories: Local brands are serious competitors in beauty, ready-to-wear (RTW), and jewellery.
• Entry price points: These brands are winning market share by offering credible products, strong cultural storytelling, digital engagement, and better value for money.
• Examples:
  • Songmont and Grotto in leather goods.
  • Laopu in jewellery.
  • Mao Geping and other domestic beauty brands.

8. Creative Activations and Experiential Formats

• Defending pricing power: Global brands are relying on creative activations and experiential formats to maintain market share.
• High-impact examples:
  • The Louis in Shanghai, which turns stores into destinations.
  • Hermès craftsmanship events with live demos and workshops.
  • Chanel pop-up stores that create immersive experiences (e.g., No.5 Garden, Coco Beach collection).

9. Investment Implications

• Uncertain recovery trajectory: The recovery in global luxury demand is uncertain.
• Defensive investment stance: A more defensive approach is recommended, with a core exposure to "plain vanilla" stocks.
• Preferred investments:
  • Richemont: Strong jewellery momentum and leadership.
  • Brunello Cucinelli: Quality and potential mean reversion.
  • LVMH: Between high quality and self-help, with Dior and Louis Vuitton showing strength.
  • Burberry: Turnaround well on track, with improved brand momentum and full-price sell-through.
• Caution for others: Brands like Kering and those with middle-class dependency still lack clear evidence of sustainable recovery.

Key Financial Data (Selected)

Conclusion

The luxury market in China is showing signs of recovery, but it remains highly polarised. While the high-end continues to perform well, middle-class demand is still fragile. Brands are adapting their strategies to local conditions, focusing on localisation, experiential formats, and digital engagement. Investment in the sector is advised with caution, emphasizing high-quality, resilient names and a defensive approach to navigate the uncertain recovery.