战略与国际研究中心-Issues-and-Insights-Vol-15,-No-7_28页_830kb

9th China-US Strategic Nuclear Dynamics Dialogue Summary

Core Content

The 9th China-US Strategic Nuclear Dynamics Dialogue, held in Beijing from February 9-10, 2015, was organized by the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies (CFISS) and the Pacific Forum CSIS, with support from the Naval Postgraduate School's Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (NPS-PASCC) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The event aimed to enhance bilateral understanding and cooperation on strategic nuclear issues, while preparing for potential official dialogue.

The dialogue involved around 80 Chinese and US experts, officials, military officers, and observers, along with four Pacific Forum Young Leaders. The off-the-record discussions focused on the strategic landscape, the nuclear dimensions of the "new type of major country relations," nonproliferation and nuclear security cooperation, and regional nuclear challenges such as North Korea and Iran.

Main Views

US Perspectives

• The US emphasized the need for a "new type of major country relations" to be translated into practical steps, especially in the context of deteriorating US-Russian relations.
• US participants expressed frustration over the lack of meaningful official dialogue with China and the reluctance to provide transparency on nuclear matters.
• They stressed the importance of Track-1.5/2 dialogues to build consensus for future Track-1 discussions.
• The US called for China to address concerns about its nuclear posture and to participate in multilateral efforts, including the P-5 process and the upcoming NPT Review Conference.
• There was a recognition that US-China cooperation on nuclear security and nonproliferation could be more effective if both sides commit to joint initiatives.

Chinese Perspectives

• Chinese participants emphasized that nuclear issues are not central to the "new type of major country relations" and that the framework should focus on broader political and military cooperation.
• They expressed concern over the US's perceived nuclear superiority and its efforts to maintain a strategic advantage over China and Russia.
• China is not ready for a more robust official nuclear dialogue and prefers Track-1.5/2 discussions to build trust and mutual understanding.
• They acknowledged the importance of cooperation with the US on nonproliferation, nuclear safety, and security, especially in addressing regional challenges like North Korea and Iran.
• Chinese participants were cautious about the possibility of a Japanese nuclear breakout, given the presence of nuclear materials in Japan, and urged the US to manage its alliances more effectively.

Key Findings

• Strategic Landscape: The US and Russia are experiencing their worst relations since the Cuban Missile Crisis, which has raised concerns about the impact on international peace and security. China believes that the US and Russia are key drivers of strategic dynamics and that the NPT Review Conference will be a critical test of multilateral cooperation.
• Track-1 Dialogue: While both sides agree that Track-1.5/2 dialogues are valuable, there is a lack of clarity on what specific issues should be included in Track-1 discussions. China is wary of transparency requirements that could undermine its strategic ambiguity and limited deterrent.
• Nonproliferation and Nuclear Security: Cooperation on nonproliferation and nuclear security is seen as a promising area. China has been leading efforts in the P-5 to develop a nuclear glossary and has engaged in verification dialogues with the UK. Both sides agree on the importance of enhancing nuclear security through joint initiatives, including the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) process.
• Regional Challenges:
  • North Korea: Both sides agree on the importance of preventing nuclear proliferation and addressing the threat of North Korean nuclear and missile tests. There was a call for deeper discussions on specific measures and agreed "redlines." However, China remains committed to resuming the Six-Party Talks as the best way to address the issue.
  • Iran: There was general agreement on the importance of reaching a comprehensive agreement with Iran, provided there is sufficient verification. Both sides see the potential for cooperation after an agreement is reached.
• Military-to-Military Dialogue: China emphasized the importance of military-to-military dialogue, but preferred it to involve the US Department of Defense and China's Ministry of Defense, rather than the Strategic Command and the Second Artillery.
• Crisis Management: Both sides agree that better communication mechanisms and hotlines are needed to manage crises, especially those triggered by third parties.

Next Steps

• The next dialogue should focus on more specific and practical areas beyond nuclear issues, including missile defense, cyber, space, and conventional strategic weapons.
• Opportunities for joint studies were discussed, such as research on the changing balance of power in Asia and its implications for China-US relations.
• The development of a Track-1 agenda and the identification of major impediments to strategic stability were endorsed.
• The US suggested that table-top exercises at the Hawaii Track-2 dialogue could be useful for testing ideas and building confidence.

Conclusion

The dialogue highlighted the need for continued engagement on strategic nuclear issues, despite the lack of formal official talks. Both sides expressed a willingness to cooperate on nonproliferation and nuclear security, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining strategic ambiguity and avoiding an arms race. The path forward involves strengthening Track-1.5/2 dialogues, improving transparency, and addressing regional nuclear challenges through multilateral cooperation.