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Summary of Outlook for Advertising, Marketing and Data 2026: Continuous Evolution

Core Content

Winterberry Group, a 20+ year-old management consultancy, provides insights into the evolving landscape of advertising, marketing, and data in 2026. The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic conditions, AI adoption, and digital transformation on the industry.

Main Points and Key Information

2025 Review

• Macroeconomic Conditions: Despite tariff shocks and moderate inflation, the market remained relatively stable. US GDP growth outperformed early forecasts, and the Fed eased rates.
• Marketing Spend Growth: Marketing spend growth normalized closer to historical GDP ratios. It beat inflation, with a notable dip in non-election periods.
• Digital vs. Offline: Digital marketing continued to drive growth, while offline marketing faced decline, primarily due to linear TV and print. However, experiential, shopper, and sponsorship formats showed strong growth.
• M&A Trends: 2025 saw a record $4.9 trillion in global M&A, with increased activity in marketing and media. Financial buyers outspent strategic ones. AI was the dominant VC investment area.

Key Trends for 2025

• AI Adoption: Agentic AI solutions became more prominent, but challenges such as data silos, unclear use cases, and the need for expert review persisted.
• Social Commerce: The shift from influencer to creator marketing accelerated, with creators driving more unique content and direct transactions.
• Commerce Media Networks: These networks expanded, capturing share from open web display and walled gardens. Measurement and attribution remain fragmented.
• Search Optimization: Search marketing shifted from SEO/SEM to GEO and AEO, driven by AI-powered search engines. Traditional keyword strategies became obsolete.
• Ad Tech Optimization: Advertisers and publishers sought to streamline the supply path. Amazon DSP and Meta/Google platforms gained traction due to cost efficiency.

Creative Intelligence

• Definition: Creative Intelligence (CI) is the ability to collect and analyze data on creative performance, contextualized by audience and media, to optimize assets for effectiveness and engagement.
• Core Capabilities: Includes creative asset ingestion, performance analytics, data conversion, activation and optimization, pre-testing, and measurement.
• Use Cases: CI supports AI-driven decision-making across the marketing lifecycle, from strategic planning to post-activation learning.

Challenges and Barriers

• Organizational Silos: Disconnected teams and outdated models hinder CI scalability.
• Agency Model Challenges: Conflicting incentives and resistance to change within agencies.
• Technology and Ecosystem Gaps: Lack of central ownership of the marketing tech stack and standardization in measurement frameworks.

2026 Outlook

• Economic Indicators: US GDP is projected to grow at 2.3%, with inflation remaining elevated at 2.4-2.7%. Political advertising is expected to inject $10.8B into the market.
• Offline Spend: Returns to growth in 2026, led by linear TV and experiential formats.
• Online Growth: Video and social-led channels will drive online marketing spend, influenced by major events like the Olympics and World Cup.
• Data Spend: Data and data services are expected to grow to $33.0BB, with a focus on integration and measurement.
• AI Impact: AI investments will drive productivity gains, not reduce spending. Marketers will seek clearer ROI thresholds and measured adoption.
• Privacy and Compliance: Privacy regulations are becoming more complex, with multi-state compliance requirements and state-level variations affecting AI implementation.

Growth Drivers for 2026

• Tentpole Events: Olympics, World Cup, and elections will drive significant marketing activity.
• Integration Services: As marketing spend increases, the demand for integration services will grow.
• Channel Shifts: Spend is moving between channels, with a focus on performance and data-driven decisions.

Strategic Implications

• Agency Transformation: Agencies are repositioning as platforms, integrating media, creative, and data. The shift from service providers to tech-enabled platforms is accelerating.
• Talent Crisis: Entry-level hiring declined, creating a skills gap. Organizations must develop new training pathways to maintain strategic expertise.
• Pricing Models: Creative intelligence pricing is expected to converge towards a retainer plus percentage of media model, reflecting performance-linked investments.

Upcoming Reports

• Creative Intelligence II (January 2026)
• In-Store, Online-and Everywhere: Out of Home Media in the New Era of Connected Commerce (January 2026)
• Life Sciences (February 2026)
• Direct Mail (March 2026)

Conclusion

The advertising, marketing, and data industry is undergoing a continuous evolution in 2026, driven by AI, digital transformation, and shifting consumer behaviors. While challenges such as data silos and privacy compliance remain, the industry is moving toward more integrated, efficient, and effective marketing strategies. Organizations must adapt to these changes to remain competitive.