布鲁盖尔-Eastern-European-lessons-for-the-southern-Mediterranean_11页_323kb

Summary of "Eastern European Lessons for the Southern Mediterranean" by André Sapir and Georg Zachmann, July 2011

Core Content

This policy contribution by André Sapir and Georg Zachmann examines the economic transition of the former communist countries (FCCs) and draws lessons for the southern Mediterranean countries (SMCs) in terms of how the EU can better support their development. The authors argue that while the SMCs share some similarities with the FCCs at the start of their transition in the 1990s, they are not as well positioned to benefit from EU-led reforms due to structural and institutional challenges.

Main Points

Similarities and Differences Between SMCs and FCCs

• The SMCs (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia) have a young and underemployed population, similar to the FCCs at the start of their transition.
• The SMCs are more advanced in market reforms than the FCCs were in 1990, but lag behind in human capital and infrastructure.
• Libya is an exception, being the least populated and richest SMC, while the other four are relatively poor and have significant agricultural populations.
• In 2009, the per capita GDP of the SMCs was significantly lower than that of the FCCs in 1990.

Lessons from Eastern Europe

• The EU's support for the transition of central and eastern European countries, including the prospect of EU membership, was instrumental in fostering economic growth and stability.
• The FCCs benefited from strong institutional reforms, better education systems, and a more efficient bureaucracy.
• The EU's conditional support and long-term vision were key to the success of the FCCs, creating a virtuous cycle of reforms and growth.

Current Challenges in the SMCs

• The SMCs face a lack of institutional capacity and a poor regulatory environment.
• Education levels in the SMCs are lower than those of the FCCs in 1990, and the system is not well aligned with the needs of the local labor market.
• Infrastructure in the SMCs is generally worse than in the FCCs at the start of their transition.
• The EU's current support for the SMCs is fragmented and lacks a unified strategy, leading to limited effectiveness.

Key Information

Economic Transition in the SMCs

• The SMCs have shown some growth, but it is socially unsustainable due to high youth unemployment.
• The economic potential for transition is lower than in the FCCs due to less developed human capital and infrastructure.
• The SMCs already have some market-based systems in place, such as international value chain participation, which limits the potential for further transformation.

EU's Role and Policy Frameworks

• The EU has been involved in the southern Mediterranean through the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (Barcelona Process), but this has not been as effective as the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in Eastern Europe.
• The Union for the Mediterranean has been weak and ineffective in providing the necessary support for reforms in the SMCs.
• The EU needs to adopt a more comprehensive and long-term strategy, including financial and institutional support.

Proposed Solution

• The authors propose the creation of a Euro-Mediterranean Economic Area (EMEA) by 2030, similar to the European Economic Area (EEA).
• This would involve the gradual elimination of trade barriers and the adoption of EU rules and policies, including competition, investment, and consumer protection.
• The EU should also offer conditional financial assistance and support for human capital and infrastructure development.

Conditional Steps for Transition

EU Side

• A revised trade agreement with front-loaded access for agricultural products.
• A 'Blue Card' system for high-skilled Mediterranean workers.
• A long-term financial commitment of €10 billion per year for 10 years.
• Support for regulatory changes in trade and migration, as well as investment in human capital and infrastructure.

Mediterranean Side

• Gradual implementation of EU legislation in economic, social, and environmental areas.
• Development of legal and institutional mechanisms to support circular migration and reintegration of returning migrants.
• Institutional reforms to improve governance and create a rule of law environment conducive to sustainable development.

Conclusion

• The EU should provide a credible long-term vision for the SMCs, including the EMEA by 2030.
• This vision must be supported by short-term actions to build trust and demonstrate commitment.
• The success of the transition in the SMCs will depend on both domestic reforms and EU support.
• Without a clear and unified strategy, the EU's efforts may fail to address the deep structural issues in the SMCs and could lead to social unrest and populist policies.