北大国际战略研究院-[ISSUE-50]-How-to-Solve-and-Control-Dispute-over-THAAD--Zhang-Tuosheng_8页_774kb

THAAD Dispute Summary

Core Content

The deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system by the United States in South Korea has triggered significant security concerns and diplomatic tensions, particularly with China. This dispute has become a critical issue affecting Sino-US relations, Sino-South Korea relations, and the broader security dynamics in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia.

Main Reasons for China's Opposition

China opposes the THAAD deployment for the following reasons:

• Weakening of China's nuclear second-strike capability: THAAD's radar system can monitor Chinese missile launches, potentially undermining China's strategic deterrence.
• Risk of South Korea joining US-Japan missile defense alliance: China fears that THAAD may lead to South Korea aligning more closely with the U.S. and Japan, destabilizing the regional balance.
• Potential formation of a U.S.-South Korea-Japan military alliance: This could further tip the military balance in favor of the U.S. and its allies, threatening China's strategic interests.

Why the Dispute Escalated Rapidly

• Sudden announcement of THAAD deployment by the U.S. and South Korea in July 2016, with a target completion by the end of 2017.
• South Korea's "three NOs" stance before the announcement, leading to misinterpretation by China.
• Timing of the announcement just before the South China Sea arbitration case, which heightened China's sensitivity.
• Political instability in South Korea in early 2017, with the early presidential election and opposition party advocating for the suspension of THAAD deployment.
• U.S. pressure on South Korea to proceed with deployment despite China's opposition, leading to increased tensions.

Prospects and Influences

There are three possible scenarios for the THAAD dispute:

1. Halt and dismantle THAAD: If the U.S. and South Korea stop the deployment, it would ease Sino-US and Sino-South Korea tensions, restore mutual trust, and allow for a return to stable relations.
2. Suspend or maintain current level: If the deployment is paused or kept at a lower level, and China takes countermeasures, the dispute can be better controlled, with a trend toward stabilization and improvement of relations.
3. Continue deployment: If the U.S. and South Korea ignore China's concerns, the dispute may intensify, leading to greater security friction and regional instability.

Recommendations for Resolving the Dispute

1. Common understanding and prioritization of denuclearization: All parties should focus on peninsula denuclearization and peace mechanism establishment, avoiding letting THAAD become a major obstacle.
2. Respect and understand security concerns: China and the U.S., as well as China and South Korea, should engage in mutual respect and dialogue to find a balance.
3. Suspension of THAAD deployment: South Korea's decision to halt deployment and submit to National Assembly approval is a positive step, providing time for dialogue and improved relations.
4. Confidence Building Measures (CBMs): The U.S. and South Korea should make security commitments to China, such as not targeting China with THAAD radar and setting up verification mechanisms.
5. Technical adjustments: The U.S. could replace the X-band radar with systems of shorter detection range and volunteer technical data to China, reducing security concerns.
6. Strengthen crisis management: China and South Korea should improve bilateral crisis management mechanisms to better handle future disputes.
7. Restart North Korea nuclear dialogue: Cooperation among the three countries to reinitiate nuclear talks with North Korea is essential to prevent military conflicts and achieve denuclearization.
8. Enhance trilateral dialogues: Continuous dialogue and negotiation are crucial, and trilateral talks should be considered as the situation evolves.

Conclusion

The THAAD dispute poses a significant challenge to regional stability and Sino-US-South Korea relations. To resolve it effectively, the three countries must cooperate, prioritize denuclearization, and engage in constructive dialogue. Only through mutual understanding and respect can the dispute be controlled and ultimately resolved.