> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # MiniMax Group (100 HK) Summary ## Core Content MiniMax Group (100 HK) reported strong performance in 1H26, with total revenue growing by 283% YoY to US\$117mn, exceeding Visible Alpha (VA) consensus estimates by 17%. The company's focus on monetization and performance-cost optimization has driven significant improvements in revenue and cost efficiency. ### Main Points - **Revenue Growth**: - Revenue in 1H26 reached US\$117mn, a 283% YoY increase, surpassing VA estimates. - Open Platform and AI-based enterprise services revenue increased by 703% YoY to US\$73.9mn, contributing 63% of total revenue. - AI-native products revenue grew by 101% YoY to US\$42.6mn, making up 37% of total revenue. - **Token Consumption and Monetization**: - Token consumption in July 2026 was 20x that of January 2026. - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed US\$800mn in August 2026, up from US\$150mn/US\$400mn in February/May 2026. - Enterprise customers now account for ~80% of ARR, compared to ~30% in FY26. - **Model Launches and Innovation**: - New models M3 and H3 have contributed to increased token consumption and monetization. - Three major models are expected to be launched in 2H26: - **M3.1**: Based on the 430bn M3 model, focuses on enhancing inference efficiency and agentic capability. - **M3 Pro**: Scales up to 3T parameters while maintaining cost and speed advantages through architectural innovation. - **H3.1**: Enhances video generation capabilities based on user feedback. - **Gross Margin and Net Profit**: - Gross margin expanded by 5.7ppts YoY to 17.9% in 1H26, driven by AI infrastructure efficiency. - Adjusted net loss widened to US\$293mn in 1H26, due to increased cloud services expenses. - Adjusted net margin improved from -456% in 1H25 to -251% in 1H26. - **Financial Forecasts**: - Updated revenue forecasts for FY26–FY28 are US\$517mn, US\$1,389mn, and US\$2,682mn, respectively. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are US\$714mn, US\$1,086mn, and US\$1,031mn for FY26–FY28. - Target price is HK\$580.0, based on a 50x FY26E P/S multiple. - **Valuation**: - The company is valued at HK\$580.0 per share (US\$25.8bn), based on a 50x P/S multiple. - Valuation is in line with the average P/S multiple of global AI peers. - **Business Outlook**: - The company plans to continue maximizing model intelligence while minimizing inference costs. - Management expects GPM to improve in 2H26 due to diminishing token-compensation headwinds and larger model launches. ## Key Information - **Shareholding**: - Yan Junjie: 22.7% - Alibaba: 11.4% - **Stock Data**: - Market Cap: HK\$105,818.3mn - 3-month trailing volume: HK\$2,552.7mn - Current Price: HK\$303.00 - Target Price: HK\$580.00 (up from HK\$570.00) - Up/Downside: 91.4% - **Risks**: - Fierce competition in the LLM industry. - Continuous R&D investment may affect profitability and cash flow. - Potential challenges in attracting and retaining key talent. ## Business Forecasts | Year | Revenue (US$ mn) | Gross Profit (US$ mn) | Operating Profit (US$ mn) | Adjusted Net Profit (US$ mn) | |------|------------------|-----------------------|----------------------------|-----------------------------| | FY26E| 517 | 121 | -782 | -714 | | FY27E| 1,389 | 398 | -1,167 | -1,086 | | FY28E| 2,682 | 903 | -1,136 | -1,031 | ## Valuation Comparison | Company | Ticker | Price (Local) | Revenue Growth (2026E) | Current P/S | Revenue CAGR | |-------------|-----------|--------------|------------------------|-------------|-------------| | Zhipu | 2513 HK | 1,059.0 | 560% | 100.6 | 344% | | Xunce | 3317 HK | 120.0 | 87% | 12.9 | 72% | | Palantir | PLTR US | 172.7 | 84% | 35.9 | 66% | | **Average** | - | - | - | **49.8** | - | ## Analyst Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months. - **NOT RATED**: Stock not rated by CMBIGM. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Summary Table | Metric | 1H26 Actual | FY26E Forecast | FY27E Forecast | FY28E Forecast | |-----------------------|-------------|----------------|----------------|----------------| | Revenue (US$ mn) | 117 | 517 | 1,389 | 2,682 | | Gross Profit (US$ mn) | 121 | 121 | 398 | 903 | | Adjusted Net Profit (US$ mn) | -293 | -714 | -1,086 | -1,031 | | Adjusted Net Margin | -251% | -138.2% | -78.2% | -38.4% | | P/S (x) | 26.1 | 50.0 | 9.7 | 5.0 | ## Key Highlights - **Monetization**: Strong growth in API calls and Token Plan adoption has boosted revenue. - **Model Development**: Launch of M3.1, M3 Pro, and H3.1 aims to extend performance-cost frontier. - **Financial Metrics**: Improved GPM and net margin despite losses. - **Valuation**: Target price reflects 50x P/S multiple, aligned with global AI peers. - **Risks**: Intense competition, R&D costs, and talent retention are key risks. ## Analysts - **Saiyi HE, CFA** - **Wentao LU, CFA** - **Ye TAO, CFA** - **Shuyin GUO** ## Disclaimer - The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored for individual investors. - Past performance does not guarantee future results. - CMBIGM is not liable for any losses or damages arising from reliance on this report. - The report may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.