2024-09-23-未来能源研究所-什么是_矿产安全_需要什么政策来实现_石油安全的教训（英）_19页_432kb

Mineral Security Analysis Summary

The paper examines mineral security issues for critical minerals (CMs) used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, drawing lessons from oil security research. Mineral security is defined as ensuring the availability and affordability of CMs like cobalt, graphite, lithium, nickel, and manganese, which are difficult to replace due to their unique properties.

Key points:1. Security Risks: Two main risks identified are (a) supply cutoffs by dominant suppliers (geopolitical conflict), and (b) high prices from market power. China dominates processing for several CMs due to its industrial policies.2. Lessons from Oil Security: Comparing CMs and oil shows similarities in market concentration, but CMs face lower supply and demand elasticities, leading to higher price volatility. Past oil policy responses, like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), are questioned for effectiveness in mineral markets.3. Policy Recommendations: Achieving mineral security requires diversification (international supply chains), reducing barriers, RD&D for demand flexibility, and caution against government intervention. Critically, the U.S. must lead international collaboration to manage market risks and mitigate reliance on China.