2025-06-03-Jefferies-迅销集团（9983）_良品计画（7453）_无印良品和优衣库5月国内月度报告_积极_15页_551kb

Equity Research Preview: Japan Retailers

June 3, 2025

KEY STOCKS FEATURED:

• Ryohin Keikaku (MUJI)

  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: ¥6,400 (Previous: ¥5,700)
  • Domestic Sales (5/25): +12.2% YoM, contributing to 16 Mth consecutive positive growth.
  • 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 8.9% (Targeting 9%)
  • 5-Year OP CAGR: 6.8% (Targeting 11% by 8/27)

• Fast Retailing (UNIQLO)

  • Rating: HOLD
  • Price Target: ¥48,000 (Previous: ¥47,000)
  • Domestic Sales (5/25): +13.1% YoM, with GW/Thank You campaigns increasing foot traffic.
  • 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 12.9% (Targeting 13%)
  • 5-Year OP CAGR: 19.0% (Targeting 9% in domestic market normalization)

Five-Yr Roadmaps:

• MUJI: Projected 9% revenue, 11% OP growth, with margins rising to 9.3%.
• UNIQLO: Targeted 9% revenue but emphasizes overseas expansion and sustainability.

Thesis & Catalysts:

• MUJI: Brand revamp, supply chain optimization, sustainable goals yield higher margins. Price competitiveness issues in China are long-term hurdles.
• UNIQLO: Footwear/GU line refreshments, overseas growth seeks counter-cycle exposure. Inventory control remains a key risk.

Risks:

• Global recession (US/China), supply failures, labor/retail slowdowns, currency fluctuations.

Previewed Insiders: Shunsuke Kuriyama (Analyst, Jefferies) maintains a long equity position in Ryohin Keikaku.