solidiance-东盟地区3200亿美元医疗保健挑战（英文版）-2018.3-32页-14mb

Summary of The ~USD 320 Billion Healthcare Challenge in ASEAN

Core Content

The ASEAN 6 nations (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) are projected to face a significant increase in healthcare costs over the coming decade, driven by demographic changes and rising health risks. This challenge is expected to lead to an estimated total healthcare cost of ~USD 740 billion by 2025, an increase of ~USD 320 billion from current levels.

The healthcare cost challenge is primarily due to the aging population, high smoking and obesity rates, and the associated rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs). These factors are expected to compound the burden on public health budgets, especially as healthcare spending per capita outpaces GDP growth.

Main Points

• Demographic Shifts:

  • The aging population is a major driver of healthcare demand.
  • By 2050, the percentage of people aged 60 and above in ASEAN is expected to more than double from 9.6% to 21.1%.
  • This shift will increase the need for healthcare services and caregiving, placing a greater strain on the economy.

• Health Risks:

  • High rates of smoking, overweight, and obesity are contributing to a rise in NCDs such as diabetes and COPD.
  • These conditions are leading to an increase in Years Lived with Disability (YLD), which is a key indicator of health quality.

• Healthcare Spending Trends:

  • Healthcare spending per capita in ASEAN is growing faster than GDP.
  • While some ASEAN countries have increased healthcare spending, the growth has slowed or stagnated in recent years.
  • Public healthcare spending remains lower than global averages, even as the burden of care increases.

• Global Healthcare Efficiency Curve:

  • ASEAN nations are in a 'middle field' in terms of healthcare cost and life expectancy, between underdeveloped and over-spending countries.
  • However, they are still below the most efficient healthcare systems in terms of achieving high life expectancy with lower spending.

• Quality of Life Metrics:

  • The increase in YLD suggests that while life expectancy may be improving, the quality of life is not.
  • Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) have increased, indicating a net loss in health quality.

Key Information

• Healthcare Cost Projections:

  • ASEAN 6's average health expenditure per capita is expected to reach ~USD 1,209 by 2025.
  • Total healthcare spending is projected to be ~USD 740 billion by 2025, an increase of ~USD 320 billion from 2017 levels.

• Taxes on Unhealthy Goods:

  • There is inconsistency in the taxation of unhealthy goods such as tobacco and alcohol.
  • Sugar and salt are generally not taxed.
  • Implementing taxes on unhealthy goods could generate revenue and reduce health risks, but may face political resistance.

• Insurance and Co-payment Systems:

  • There is a wide variation in public healthcare coverage and patient contribution across ASEAN nations.
  • Moving towards an insurance-based system and reducing co-payment could improve access and efficiency.

• Opportunities for Improvement:

  • Governments need to focus on prevention and early intervention to reduce the burden of disability.
  • Streamlining healthcare spending and reducing administrative costs can lead to more efficient resource allocation.
  • New funding sources and innovative cost-effective solutions are essential for sustainable healthcare development.

Conclusion

The healthcare challenge in ASEAN is significant but presents opportunities for improvement. By addressing the drivers of disability, streamlining spending, and generating new funding sources, ASEAN nations can move towards becoming more efficient healthcare systems. This will not only help in managing rising costs but also in improving the quality of life for their citizens.