2004年-世界发展银行全球_Iran_-_Energy___Environment_Review_Policy_Note_63页_8mb

Summary of the Islamic Republic of Iran Energy-Environment Review Policy Note

Core Content

This Policy Note provides an analysis of the environmental and energy challenges facing Iran, with a focus on integrating environmental priorities into the energy sector. It is based on the Environmental Energy Review (EER), which was conducted over two years with the collaboration of the Government of Iran (GOI) and the assistance of international and national consultants. The EER was funded by the Norwegian Trust Fund for Sustainable Development and aims to support the GOI in achieving its sustainable development goals, particularly within the framework of the 4th Five-Year Development Plan (2005–2010).

The document outlines a strategic framework for energy-environment integration and proposes policy reforms and sectoral measures to reduce environmental damage costs and improve resource efficiency.

Main Environmental Issues in Iran

3.2.1 Water Scarcity and Quality

Iran faces significant water scarcity and declining water quality due to overuse, pollution, and inefficient management.

3.2.2 Urban and Industrial Pollution

Urban and industrial areas suffer from severe air pollution, primarily due to energy use and transportation.

3.2.3 Untreated Hazardous and Municipal Wastes

A lack of proper waste management systems leads to environmental degradation and health risks.

3.2.4 Land Degradation and Deforestation

Land degradation and deforestation are ongoing issues, particularly in areas affected by oil and gas activities.

3.2.5 Exposure to Natural Hazards

Iran is prone to natural hazards such as earthquakes, droughts, and floods, which exacerbate environmental challenges.

3.2.6 Trans-boundary and Regional Issues

Environmental problems such as air pollution and marine contamination are shared with neighboring countries, requiring regional cooperation.

3.2.7 Institutional and Legal Framework

The institutional framework for environmental management is weak, and legal enforcement is lacking.

3.2.8 Summary of Issues

The environmental challenges in Iran are multifaceted, affecting air, water, land, and public health. They are largely driven by the energy sector and its associated activities.

Costs of Environmental Degradation

• The EER estimates that in 2001, the total health damage from air pollution was about $56 \times 10^{12}$ Rials ($7 billion), equivalent to 8.4% of nominal GDP.
• Without reform, damage costs are projected to increase to $155 \times 10^{12}$ Rials ($19 billion) by 2019, equivalent to 10.9% of GDP.
• The transport sector contributes the largest share of these damage costs, accounting for $107 \times 10^{12}$ Rials ($8.4 billion).
• The global environmental damage from natural gas flaring is estimated at approximately $600 million annually, based on a carbon price of $10 per ton of CO₂.

Energy Sector Overview

4.1 Energy Supply and Conversion

Iran has substantial hydrocarbon reserves, being the second-largest oil producer in OPEC. Its energy supply is dominated by oil and natural gas, with a reserves-to-production ratio of around 360 years for natural gas.

4.2 Energy Demand

Per capita energy consumption has increased significantly from 2.0 boe in 1965 to 10 boe in 2001. The energy intensity is higher than most industrial economies and densely populated developing countries like China and India.

4.3 Energy Trends

Energy demand is expected to continue growing, driven by economic expansion and population increase.

4.4 Implications for the Environment

The energy sector is a major contributor to air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and environmental degradation. It is also a source of market distortion due to heavy subsidies.

Policy Options

6.1 Price Reform

• Price reform is essential to reduce subsidies and align energy prices with opportunity costs.
• Three scenarios were considered:
  • Fast price reform (by 2009): Reduces damage costs by half and improves financial and environmental benefits.
  • Intermediate price reform (by 2014): Leads to a 50% reduction in damage costs from 10.9% to 5.7% of GDP.
  • Very slow price reform (by 2019): Results in only a marginal reduction in damage costs, with higher subsidies and environmental damage.

6.2 Sectoral Measures

• These include targeted financial incentives, equipment standards, and environmental regulations.
• Without price reform, sectoral measures reduce damage costs from 10.9% to 7.6% of GDP by 2019.

6.3 Combined Price Reform and Sectoral Measures

• The most effective strategy is a combination of price reform and sectoral measures.
• This approach brings energy consumption in 2019 close to 2001 levels and reduces environmental damage costs from 8.4% to 3.9% of GDP.

6.4 Partial Price Reform

• If comprehensive price reform is not feasible, targeting transport fuels offers a compromise, reducing both subsidies and damage costs.

Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1 Findings

• Rapid price reform is the most effective strategy for reducing environmental damage costs.
• Only a combination of price reform and sectoral measures can keep damage costs below 2004 levels by 2019.
• Delaying price reform beyond 2009 can be mitigated by promoting the substitution of fuel oil with natural gas and improving energy efficiency.

7.2 Recommendations: A New Energy-Environment Strategic Framework (2004–2014)

• Improve human health and quality of life: Through environmental control measures targeting respiratory diseases.
• Efficient energy pricing: To stimulate energy efficiency and competitiveness.
• Invest in clean technologies: To improve the sustainability of energy capital.
• Strengthen institutional and legal frameworks: To support environmental regulation, monitoring, and enforcement.

7.3 Action Plan

• The Action Plan includes a set of priority investments and policy reforms.
• It is intended to be implemented within a coherent framework of Iranian environmental, energy, and economic policies.
• The DOE has established an EER Office and a Steering Committee to oversee the process.

7.4 Role of the World Bank

• Assist in setting environmental priorities and improving environment management capacity.
• Strengthen environmental and social assessment.
• Integrate environmental priorities into energy sector projects and programs.
• Build capacity in key ministries and local governments.
• Promote regional cooperation on marine pollution and environmental protection.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 4.1: Production and export of crude oil.

• Figure 4.2: Per capita energy consumption.

• Figure 4.3: Energy demand in 2001.

• Figure 4.4: International comparison of energy intensity.

• Figure 4.5: Subsidies to energy by fuel and sector (2001).

• Figure 4.6: Allocation of subsidies by fuel and sector (2019).

• Figure 5.1: Emissions by sector.

• Figure 5.2: Damage by fuel and sector in 2001.

• Figure 5.3: Damage cost by pollutant and sector in 2001.

• Figure 5.4: The economic cost of fuel.

• Figure 5.5: Damage by fuel and sector in 2019.

• Figure 5.6: Evolution of damage by pollutant.

• Figure 5.7: Evolution of damage by sector.

• Figure 5-8: Evolution of damage by fuel.

• Figure 6.1: Energy demand in three reform scenarios.

• Figure 6.2: Damage costs by pollutant in selected years under reform.

• Figure 6.3: Direct impacts on economic growth from price reform.

• Figure 6.4: Damage by pollutant over time: measures without price reform.

• Figure 6.5: Cumulative net benefits to Iran.

• Figure 6.6: Net financial flows to the state of measures.

• Figure 6.7: Damage costs by pollutant: price reform plus measures.

• Figure 6.8: Cumulative economic benefits.

• Figure 6.9: Cumulative net cash-flow to the state.

• Figure 6.10: Damage reductions for single fuel price increases (2019).

• Figure 6.11: Subsidy reductions for individual fuel price increases (2019).

• Table 4-1: Impacts of gas flaring (1994/95).

• Table 4-2: Energy balance (2001).

• Table 4-3: Partial energy balance for 2019.

• Table 5-1: Benefit values assumed for Iran.

• Table 6-1: Market prices and opportunity costs (2001).

• Table 6-2: Effect on consumer price index of price reform.

• Table 6-3: Summary of sectoral measures.

• Table 6-4: CBA of sectoral measures.

• Table 6-5: Key parameters of the modeled policies.

• Table 7-1: Main effects of price reform and sectoral measures.

Conclusion

The EER highlights the critical role of the energy sector in environmental degradation and underscores the need for comprehensive policy reforms. By aligning energy prices with opportunity costs and implementing targeted sectoral measures, Iran can significantly reduce environmental damage costs and improve resource efficiency. The World Bank is positioned to support this process through technical assistance, capacity building, and regional cooperation. The proposed strategic framework and action plan aim to integrate environmental concerns into the energy sector and promote sustainable development.