> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Summary of "The State of E-commerce in Central Europe in 2026" ## Core Content E-commerce in Central Europe has entered a new phase of stable and predictable growth following a period of pandemic-driven acceleration and subsequent correction. The market is mature, with growth rates stabilizing around 9% CAGR and e-commerce revenue projected to reach nearly €224bn by 2027. However, the region is not a single market but a collection of markets at different stages of development, each with unique characteristics and growth dynamics. Germany dominates the e-commerce market in Central Europe, accounting for around 57% of total regional revenue by 2026, with Poland and Switzerland contributing 15% and 9%, respectively. This highlights the uneven distribution of e-commerce activity across the region, with Germany being the most developed market, followed by Austria and Switzerland, while Poland and Greece are still in earlier stages of online adoption. ## Main Points - **Market Maturity and Growth** - E-commerce is becoming more embedded in consumer preferences, with higher online penetration leading to slower growth rates. - The focus of growth is shifting from acquiring new buyers to increasing buying frequency among existing customers. - The e-commerce revenue equation is evolving, with purchase frequency now playing a more significant role than average order value (AOV). - **Cross-Border E-commerce** - Cross-border shopping is a structural component of e-commerce in Central Europe, with varying significance by country. - Smaller or less developed markets tend to rely more on international retailers due to limited local supply and fewer large domestic players. - Larger, more mature markets like Germany show lower cross-border spend, as domestic ecosystems provide sufficient product breadth. - **Category Mix and Buying Frequency** - The category mix in mature Central European markets is relatively stable, with electronics, fashion, and groceries being key categories. - Buying frequency varies by category and market, with some categories (like hobby & leisure and groceries) showing stronger frequency growth. - Frequency is now a key indicator of e-commerce maturity, reflecting how deeply online shopping is integrated into daily consumer behavior. - **Agentic Commerce as a New Paradigm** - Agentic commerce is emerging as a transformative force, leveraging AI to support consumer decision-making and automate parts of the purchase journey. - AI agents can assist with discovery, narrowing choices, and executing transactions within defined boundaries, shifting some decision-making from humans to AI systems. - This shift is not immediate but will unfold gradually, with human-led and agent-led purchase journeys coexisting for years. - **Consumer Needs and Enablers** - E-commerce growth is driven by timeless consumer needs such as fair value perception, secure environment, effort minimization, and decision confidence. - Hygienic enablers like cybersecurity and basic checkout rails are now table stakes, ensuring transactions can occur without friction. - Differentiating levers, such as personalization, loyalty programs, and subscriptions, are used to enhance consumer engagement and drive repeat purchases. ## Key Information - **E-commerce Growth Trends**: - Central Europe's e-commerce market grew from €112bn in 2019 to €191bn in 2025, and is expected to reach €224bn by 2027. - Growth is becoming more consistent and less event-driven, reflecting a shift toward a more predictable market environment. - **Regional Differences**: - Germany is the largest and most mature market, with a high per capita spend and a well-established online retail ecosystem. - Poland and Greece are growing faster due to lower online penetration, while Switzerland shows a high per capita spend despite its small size. - **Purchase Frequency Dynamics**: - Purchase frequency has increased across all major categories, especially in high-penetration areas like groceries and hobby & leisure. - Frequency is becoming the primary growth lever in mature markets, as first-time buyer acquisition becomes more limited. - **Agentic Commerce** - Agentic commerce introduces AI-driven systems that can support or even act on behalf of consumers in purchasing decisions. - It redefines the purchase journey by reducing effort, simplifying choices, and improving product recommendations. - The adoption of agentic commerce is expected to increase gradually, influenced by trust, context, and local conditions. - **Strategic Implications** - For merchants and ecosystem players, the challenge is not whether agentic commerce will matter, but how to remain relevant in this new landscape. - Strategic focus should shift toward enhancing customer experience, convenience, and relevance to support repeat engagement. - E-commerce innovation in Central Europe will be shaped by local consumer expectations, regulatory frameworks, and payment infrastructures, rather than direct replication of global models. ## Conclusion The e-commerce landscape in Central Europe is evolving toward a more customer-centric and technology-driven future. As markets mature, growth will increasingly depend on repeat engagement and the ability to meet consumer needs through both hygienic and differentiating levers. Agentic commerce represents a structural shift, redefining how consumers interact with digital commerce and offering new opportunities for merchants to enhance relevance and customer retention.