20251201-招银国际-美团-W-03690.HK-FD_investment_peaked_out_driving_value_creation_to_enhance_mind_share_in_core_users_7页_1mb

Summary of Meituan (3690 HK) Equity Research Update

• Performance Overview: Meituan reported its 3Q25 results, with revenue at RMB95.5bn (up 2.0 YoY, missing both forecast and consensus by 2%). Adj. net loss was RMB16bn (yoy increase from RMB12.8bn in 3Q24, better than the consensus of RMB14.0bn but worse than the forecast loss of RMB16.6bn). FD investment peaked in 3Q25 amid intensified competition, but moderation is expected QoQ in 4Q25.

• Strategic Focus: Core Local Commerce (CLC) segment revenue declined 3% YoY to RMB67.4bn, attributed to business strategy shifts for user stickiness and market position strengthening. Emphasis is on enhancing mindshare through high-value FD orders and better operational efficiency, supported by Keeta's profitability (turned profitable in Hong Kong Oct 2025, ahead of schedule).

• New Initiatives: Keeta revenue grew 15.9% YoY to RMB28.0bn in 3Q25, with narrower operating loss (RMB1.3bn vs RMB1.9bn in Q25). Profitability driven in Asia, with GCC expansion expected; however, revenue growth for new initiatives is projected to accelerate to 18.5% YoY in 4Q25.

• Valuation: Target price lowered by 9% to HK$141, reflecting revised forecasts lowering revenue and operating profit estimates due to incremental investment in CLC and new business losses. Now trades at 19x 2027E PE (non-GAAP), with a BUY recommendation.

• Financial Outlook: Revised 2025E revenue forecast down 1%, driven by missed Q3 performance, but 2026-2027E revenue lifted for Keeta expansion. 2025E adj. net loss is adjusted higher due to new business costs. Analyst certification ensures personal views align with recommendations, and disclosures caution on reliance on market assumptions.