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USA Beverage, Household & Personal Care Equity Research: Nielsen vs. Actuals Analysis Summary (June 10, 2025)

Overall Market Overview:

• Nielsen vs. actual sales comparison for US Beverage, Household & Personal Care (HPC) sector based on actual data and Nielsen estimates for the last 8 quarters with QTD trends (Weeks 1-9 ending June 7, 2025).
• Key highlights:
  • HPC shows mixed results but consumption improved.
  • Soft drinks companies appear stable, with KO and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) most likely to revise higher if QTD trends persist.
  • Beverage Alcohol (BevAlc) overall is weak, with Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) negative (but excluding partnership impact per notes), while Stella Artois (STZ) is a positive outlier.
  • Health & Wellness sells are mixed, with Beyond Meat (BYND) and Cali Boost (COCO) exceeding expectations, while Simply Good Foods (SMPL) growth is slowing.
  • Consumer Health is generally in line with expectations (Consumer Health Equities like KVUE and PBH face headwinds from distributor issues and shipment/consumption gaps).

HPC Sector Details:

• Nielsen vs. Actual Gap:
  • Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) shows a large gap, but both actuals and Nielsen are down.
• Key Companies:
  • Kellogg's (K): Down significantly, possibly due to ERP transition.
  • Campbell's (CELH): Cooperating with inventory issues, with shipment-gap noted.

Soft Drinks:

• KO (The Coca-Cola Company): Sales growth, shipments exceeding Nielsen due to higher 1Q shipments, indicating potential upside if trends hold.
• KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper): Actuals exceed Nielsen due to partner brand contributions not fully captured in Nielsen data.
• PEP (PepsiCo): Actuals lag Nielsen.
• MNST (Monster Beverage - now part of KDP): Gap reversion noted between shipments and consumption.

Beverage Alcohol (BevAlc):

• STZ (Stella Artois): Positive outlier.
• ABI (Anheuser-Busch InBev): Lagging but excludes partnership impact in actuals vs. Nielsen.
• TAP/SAM: Actual sales lagging.

Health & Wellness:

• BRBR (BellRing Brands): Strong sales (22.8%), however, retailer destocking and club channel absence noted.
• BYND (Beyond Meat): Exceeding both Nielsen and Street estimates, driven by continued demand.
• SMPL (Simply): Strong actual sales but slowly pausing (Nielsen vs. actual gap reversing).
• Blankenau Inc. (BEI): Strong performance but not yet in key spotlight.

Consumer Health:

• KVUE (Kerry Pharma): Facing China distributor issues and higher trade spend.
• PBH (Prestige Brands): Eye care shipments vs. consumption gap noted.
• NutraBolt and other health sub-sectors like Celery (COCO) and Ghost are exceeding expectations.

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Overall:

• Household brands like Unilever (ULVR) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are trailing slightly.
• Reckitt Benckiser/Haleon (HLN) and Nestle (ULVR) are underperforming, likely due to market shifts or inventory factors.

Key Trends:

• HPC consumption is noted as improving.
• Food innovation in consumer health is trending upward (e.g., Freshpet, NutraBolt).
• Retailer impact (destocking) and channel exclusions (Nielsen omission) are key reasons for divergences in Nielsen vs. actuals.

Attention Needed:

• Drive to sustain QTD trends, especially regarding KO, KDP, and BRBR.
• Monitor consumption gaps and inventory issues across various segments.