> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # InnoCare Pharma (9969 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Overview InnoCare Pharma has demonstrated strong commercial performance in 2025 and continued this momentum into 1Q26, with total product sales reaching RMB1.44bn and a 43.4% YoY increase. In 1Q26, product sales were RMB450mn, marking a 44.5% YoY growth and a 4.2% QoQ increase, alongside a net profit of RMB100mn. The company's growth is expected to continue, primarily due to the inclusion of orelabrutinib in the NRDL for 1L CLL/SLL starting in January 2026. Management has guided for at least a 30% YoY increase in orelabrutinib sales in FY26. ## Key Assets and Pipelines - **Orelabrutinib**: - Already commercialized in oncology. - NDA submission for primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is upcoming, which will open its commercialization in the autoimmune market. - Phase 3 trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are ongoing. - ZBIO is advancing Phase 3 trials for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS), targeting large unmet medical needs and multi-billion-dollar markets. - **Mesutoclax (Bcl-2 inhibitor)**: - Shows improved safety and strong potency. - Targeted to initiate Phase 3 trial in 1L AML. - Being explored for MDS globally. - Competitor venetoclax has failed in MDS, presenting a favorable competitive landscape for mesutoclax. - **TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor ICP-332**: - Released highly competitive Phase 2 data in atopic dermatitis (AD). - Phase 3 data expected in mid-2026. - Being explored for multiple high-potential autoimmune indications, including vitiligo, chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and prurigo nodularis (PN). ## Business Development (BD) - In 2025, InnoCare out-licensed two major assets: - Orelabrutinib to Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO US, NR). - CD3xCD20 bsAb (ICP-B02) to Prolium. - These strategic BD moves, combined with robust sales, have strengthened the company's balance sheet, resulting in a cash balance of RMB7.92bn at the end of 1Q26. ## Financial Highlights | Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | Net Profit (RMB mn) | EPS (RMB) | |------|------------------|---------------------|----------| | FY24A| 1,009 | -440.6 | -0.26 | | FY25A| 2,375 | 643.0 | 0.38 | | FY26E| 2,592 | 225.4 | 0.13 | | FY27E| 3,063 | 281.1 | 0.16 | | FY28E| 3,936 | 598.8 | 0.34 | ## Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price (TP)**: HK$18.31 (up from previous TP of HK$11.95). - **DCF Valuation (RMB mn)**: - 2026E: 20,260 - 2027E: 25,770 - 2028E: 35,596 - **Terminal Growth Rate**: 2.00% - **WACC**: 10.73% - **Equity Beta**: 1.10 - **Risk-Free Rate**: 2.50% - **Market Risk Premium**: 10.50% ## Shareholding and Stock Performance - **Shareholding Structure**: - Hillhouse Capital: 11.8% - Vivo Capital: 7.1% - **Stock Data**: - Market Cap (HK$ mn): 24,846.2 - Average 3-month total return (HK$ mn): 107.0 - 52-week High/Low (HK$): 20.00/9.40 - Total Issued Shares (mn): 1,764.6 - **12-Month Price Performance**: - Absolute: 19.7% - Relative: 12.6% ## Financial Summary - **FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm)**: - 2026E: 400 - 2027E: 514 - 2028E: 675 - 2029E: 1,206 - 2030E: 1,891 - 2031E: 2,201 - 2032E: 2,517 - 2033E: 2,710 - 2034E: 2,877 - 2035E: 3,046 - **Terminal Value (RMB mn)**: 35,596 - **Equity Value (RMB mn)**: - 2026E: 28,438 - 2028E: 32,316 (HK$) - **Net Debt**: -6,519 (RMB mn) - **Minorities**: 21 (RMB mn) - **Equity Value (HK$ mn)**: 32,316 ## Analyst Ratings and Recommendations - **CMBIGM Rating**: BUY - **Target Price (TP) per share**: HK$18.31 - **Up/Downside**: 30.1% - **Current Price**: HK$14.08 ## Sensitivity Analysis | Terminal Growth Rate | WACC 9.73% | WACC 10.23% | WACC 10.73% | WACC 11.23% | WACC 11.73% | |---------------------|-----------|------------|------------|------------|------------| | 3.00% | 22.26 | 20.77 | 19.48 | 18.34 | 17.35 | | 2.50% | 21.38 | 20.04 | 18.86 | 17.82 | 16.90 | | 2.00% | 20.62 | 19.39 | **18.31** | 17.35 | 16.50 | | 1.50% | 19.95 | 18.83 | 17.83 | 16.93 | 16.13 | | 1.00% | 19.36 | 18.32 | 17.39 | 16.56 | 15.80 | ## CMBIGM Estimates vs Consensus | Metric | CMBIGM (RMB mn) | Consensus (RMB mn) | Diff (%) | |----------------------|----------------|-------------------|----------| | Revenue (FY26E) | 2,592 | 2,206 | 17% | | Gross Profit (FY26E) | 2,322 | 1,946 | 19% | | Operating Profit (FY26E) | 318 | -59 | NA | | Net Profit (FY26E) | 224 | 49 | 358% | | EPS (FY26E) | 0.13 | 0.04 | 265% | | Gross Margin (FY26E) | 89.59% | 88.22% | +1.37 ppt | ## Key Financial Indicators - **Gross Profit Margin**: - FY23A: 82.6% - FY24A: 86.3% - FY25A: 92.0% - FY26E: 89.6% - FY27E: 87.1% - FY28E: 86.9% - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - FY23A: -8.6% - FY24A: -6.4% - FY25A: 8.9% - FY26E: 2.9% - FY27E: 3.5% - FY28E: 7.0% - **Current Ratio (x)**: - FY23A: 4.2 - FY24A: 7.4 - FY25A: 5.8 - FY26E: 5.2 - FY27E: 4.3 - FY28E: 3.9 ## Valuation Ratios - **P/E Ratio**: - FY23A: ns - FY24A: ns - FY25A: 32.3 - FY26E: 96.0 - FY27E: 77.0 - FY28E: 36.1 - **P/B Ratio**: - FY23A: 4.2 - FY24A: 3.9 - FY25A: 4.5 - FY26E: 4.7 - FY27E: 4.8 - FY28E: 5.2 ## Key Events and Outlook - The upcoming ASCO meeting will release global clinical data on ICP-248 in AML and MDS, along with data on combination therapy with orelabrutinib. - The company's pipeline is expanding, with ICP-332 and ICP-488 also being explored for multiple autoimmune indications. - InnoCare's robust cash position supports its R&D initiatives and long-term growth in both oncology and autoimmune markets. ## Analyst Certification The research analyst certifies that: - All views expressed accurately reflect personal views. - No part of compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report. - No trading in the stock(s) covered in the report has occurred within 30 days prior to the report's issue, and no trading is planned within 3 business days after issue. ## Important Disclosures - The report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. - CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US and may have conflicts of interest. - The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.