2003-03-24-皮尤-Public_Confidence_In_War_Effort_Falters_18页_184kb

Summary of the Pew Research Center's March 2003 War Tracking Survey

Core Content

This document presents the results of a Pew Research Center survey conducted from March 20-24, 2003, tracking public opinion on the war in Iraq. The survey highlights the level of public support for the war and the administration, as well as the emotional and psychological impact of the conflict, media coverage, and demographic differences in perception.

Main Points

Public Confidence and Support

• Support for the war remains strong, with 72% of Americans believing it was the right decision.
• Support for President Bush has increased, with 71% approving of his handling of the war.
• Despite a drop in confidence that the war is going well (from 71% on March 20-22 to 38% on March 23-24), overall support for the war has not waned significantly.

Emotional Impact

• Depression and sadness have increased slightly, with 32% feeling depressed and 59% feeling sad when watching war coverage.
• The emotional fallout is less intense than during the Persian Gulf War (1991) and the 9/11 attacks (2001).
• Women are twice as likely as men to feel depressed by the war.
• War opponents are more likely to feel depressed than supporters (49% vs. 24%).

Media Coverage

• Television remains the primary source of war news, with 73% of Americans first learning about the war from TV.
• 79% of the public gives the media a positive rating for coverage of the war.
• War supporters rate media coverage more positively than opponents (43% say it's excellent vs. 27%).

Partisan and Ideological Differences

• Republicans are more supportive of the war and the president compared to Democrats.
  • 92% of Republicans think the war was the right decision, while 58% of Democrats do.
  • 95% of conservative Republicans approve of Bush's performance, while only 33% of liberal Democrats do.
• Liberal Democrats are the only group where a majority (54%) believe the war was the wrong decision.

Public Attention and Behavior

• 57% of the public follows war news very closely, with 33% following it somewhat closely.
• Public attention is comparable to the level seen in the Persian Gulf War (1991) but lower than after 9/11.
• Fewer people are praying more since the war began (53%) than after 9/11 (69%) or the Persian Gulf War (65%).

Psychological and Emotional Reactions

• Concerns about casualties and chemical/biological attacks have increased slightly as the war progressed.
• Worries about terrorist attacks have declined from 57% in February to 35% in March.
• Fewer people are taking steps to prepare their homes for emergencies (19%) compared to after 9/11 (22%).

Comparison to Previous Conflicts

• The rally effect for the war is less pronounced than during the Persian Gulf War (1991).
• Emotional impact is less severe than after 9/11, with 32% feeling depressed compared to 50% in 1991 and 71% after 9/11.

Key Information

Survey Methodology

• Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates.
• Sample size: 1,495 adults, 18 years or older.
• Margin of error: ±3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Public Reaction to War Opponents

• 45% of respondents now say they have heard too much from anti-war voices, up from 37% earlier in the survey.
• 30% say they have heard too little, while 24% say they have heard the right amount.

Demographic Breakdown

• Men are more likely than women to approve of the war and feel less affected emotionally.
• White Americans are more supportive of the war than African-Americans and Hispanics.
• Republicans are more likely than Democrats or Independents to feel they have heard too much from war opponents.

Travel and Emergency Preparedness

• Fewer people are changing travel plans due to the war.
• 19% have taken steps to prepare their homes for emergencies, similar to levels seen in late 2001.

Conclusion

The survey indicates that while public confidence in the war's progress has declined, overall support for the war and President Bush remains strong. The emotional impact is less severe than during the Persian Gulf War and the 9/11 attacks, with partisan and ideological divisions still evident. Television remains the dominant news source, and media coverage is generally viewed positively, especially by war supporters.