20230827-开源证券-2023年7月财政数据点评_后续财政基建支出有望实现正增_6页_787kb

Summary of Fiscal Data Analysis Report August 27, 2023

The report analyzes fiscal data for July 2023, emphasizing partial stabilization in the economy amid ongoing challenges.

Key Fiscal Insights:

• Revenue: July public fiscal revenue declined by 48% compared口径, but the drop narrowed from -102% in June, indicating a slight relief. Improvements were seen in VAT and enterprise income, while personal income taxes slightly fell. Non-tax revenues were negatively impacted by high基数.

• Expenditure: July spending fell 0.75% year-on-year, better than -2.53% in June. Expenditure remains focused on social services, but infrastructure is expected to see a rise with newly issued bonds, aiming for "力提效" support.

• Government Funds: Income and spending improved, with land sales being a driver, but sustainability risk due to weak real estate recovery. The fiscal deficit widened in the first seven months.

• Overall Outlook: Signs align with economic bottoming, with cautious advice for the bond market. Policy tools like financial instruments are poised to play a role in steadying growth.

• Risks: Economic policy changes or fiscal performance could deviate from expectations.

The report suggests a guarded optimism, recommending vigilance in market investments.