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Syria: The Search for the Least Bad Option – Summary

Core Content

The document "Syria: The Search for the Least Bad Option" by Anthony H. Cordesman, dated April 3, 2013, analyzes the complex and deeply entrenched conflict in Syria, emphasizing that there are no clear "good" options for resolving the situation. The author outlines the challenges of intervention, the risks of escalation, and the long-term consequences of the war for Syria and the broader Middle East.

Main Points

1. The Nature of the Conflict

• The Syrian civil war has led to deep sectarian divisions among Sunni, Alawite, Kurdish, and other minority groups.
• The conflict has spilled over into neighboring countries like Lebanon and Iraq, rekindling sectarian tensions.
• It has also become part of a larger religious conflict within Islam, pitting Sunnis against Shi'ites and mainstream Islam against extremists.

2. Foreign Involvement

• Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and the UAE have provided financial, military, and logistical support to the opposition.
• The US, UK, and France have engaged in covert support, maintaining plausible deniability.
• Iran, Russia, and possibly China support the Assad regime, with Iran and Hezbollah playing a direct role.

3. The Cost of the Conflict

• The conflict has caused significant human and economic damage, with massive refugee crises and internal displacement.
• The opposition lacks a strong political or democratic foundation, with power based on military strength rather than legitimacy.
• The potential for long-term instability and power struggles is high, even if Assad is removed.

4. The "Least Bad" Options

• Advanced Weapon Support: Providing the opposition with advanced weapons like man-portable surface-to-air missiles (MANPADS) and anti-armored guided weapons could reduce Assad’s military advantage.
• Sanctuaries: Creating limited sanctuaries in border areas with Turkey and Jordan, supported by surface-to-air missiles, might help the opposition, but risks creating new conflict zones.
• No Fly Zone: Establishing a no fly zone using US and allied airpower could limit Assad’s aerial capabilities, but requires strong political support and may provoke a broader regional response.
• Major Military Action: Direct use of US cruise missiles and airpower to destroy key regime facilities is a possible option, but carries significant risks and potential for international backlash.

5. Strategic Considerations

• The US must balance the risks of escalation and the lack of control over the opposition’s eventual composition.
• The document highlights the need for careful planning and the importance of avoiding the mistakes made in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• The idea of a "red line" regarding chemical weapons is discussed as a potential deterrent, though it remains untested.

Key Information

• No Clear Path to Peace: All options involve significant risks and uncertainties, with no guarantee of a stable or democratic outcome.
• Military Options: The US is considering military support for the opposition, but faces challenges in attribution, control, and international law.
• Long-Term Instability: The conflict is likely to persist for years, with the potential for a "Arab decade" of instability across the region.
• Regional Impact: The war has become a proxy conflict with regional and global implications, involving major powers and religious factions.

Conclusion

The document concludes that while there are no good options, the best of the "least bad" choices is to provide the opposition with advanced weapons, despite the associated risks. It underscores the need for the US to engage in careful, long-term nation-building efforts rather than pursuing quick fixes that may lead to greater instability. The Syrian conflict is not just a local issue but a symptom of broader regional and religious tensions that will require sustained diplomatic and strategic engagement.