2011年-世界发展银行全球_Belarus_Public_Expenditure_Review___Fiscal_Reforms_for_a_Sustainable_Economic_Recovery_124页_2mb

Belarus Public Expenditure Review: Fiscal Reforms for a Sustainable Economic Recovery

Core Content

This report, Belarus Public Expenditure Review: Fiscal Reforms for a Sustainable Economic Recovery, provides an in-depth analysis of fiscal challenges and reform options in key sectors of Belarus. It outlines a programmatic approach to fiscal reform, focusing on four main areas: agriculture, energy services, social assistance, and the pension system. The goal is to support a sustainable economic recovery by addressing structural imbalances and improving fiscal efficiency.

Main Macro-Economic and Fiscal Challenges

• High Public Expenditure: General government expenditure accounts for about 44% of GDP, which is 3 percentage points higher than the regional average and 5 percentage points above countries with similar per capita income.
• Fiscal Constraints: The state-driven economic model, with extensive subsidies and directed lending, has constrained the private sector and increased fiscal pressure.
• Tax Burden: The tax burden is heavy, with statutory tax rates being high, which undermines economic competitiveness.
• Quasi-Fiscal Activities: These include underpriced utility services and directed lending to SOEs, which have significant fiscal implications.
• Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments Crisis: A de-facto multiple exchange rate system emerged due to lack of credibility, exacerbating external imbalances.

Key Sectors and Their Fiscal Implications

1. Agriculture

• Sector Overview: The agricultural sector contributes 8% to GDP but absorbs 5% of GDP in state support, with fiscal support accounting for 67% of agricultural GDP.
• Subsidy Composition:
  • Amber Box Measures: Dominant and market-distorting, accounting for the majority of spending.
  • Green Box Measures: Small in scale and remain limited.
• Challenges:
  • Unprofitable farms with high debt levels.
  • Low productivity in agriculture compared to other sectors.
  • Input subsidies have increased due to rising input prices.
• Policy Options:
  • Rationalizing agricultural subsidies, reducing them to 10% of gross agricultural output.
  • Reducing directed lending and recapitalization expenditures.
  • Implementing reforms to align with WTO standards and improve efficiency.

2. Energy Services

• Sector Overview: Energy subsidies are a major fiscal burden, with significant cross-subsidies affecting the financial viability of the sector.
• Subsidy Impact:
  • Underpriced energy services have led to a growing fiscal cost.
  • Cross-subsidies are squeezing net profits of state-owned energy companies.
• Tariff Reforms:
  • Residential tariffs have not kept up with rising production costs.
  • Proposed reforms aim to increase tariffs to cost recovery levels, which would reduce fiscal support and improve sector sustainability.
• Policy Options:
  • Adjusting tariffs for residential and industrial consumers.
  • Eliminating preferential electricity and gas tariffs.
  • Implementing a more transparent pricing mechanism.

3. Social Assistance

• Sector Overview: Social assistance is a significant part of public expenditure, with a larger share of GDP redistributed through these programs than most countries in the region.
• Targeting Issues:
  • Current programs are not efficiently targeted, with privileges poorly directed towards the poor.
  • Income-tested programs are minimal, and social assistance is not as progressive as it could be.
• Policy Options:
  • Rationalizing social assistance privileges to reduce fiscal costs.
  • Scaling up targeted social assistance to protect low-income households.
  • Improving the targeting efficiency of social assistance programs.

4. Pensions

• Sector Overview: The pension system is facing long-term sustainability challenges due to demographic changes and aging population.
• Current Issues:
  • High pension contribution rates (24%).
  • Low retirement age and many pensioners continue to work.
  • Replacement rates are declining due to increasing dependency ratios.
• Policy Options:
  • Pension reform package including elimination of early retirement options, increasing retirement age, and indexation.
  • Implementing notional defined contribution accounts to improve long-term sustainability.
  • Reducing fiscal pressure through structural reforms that align with demographic trends.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Consolidation:
  • Implement short-term austerity measures such as tax increases, capital expenditure cuts, and wage freezes.
  • Focus on reducing inefficient subsidies and directed lending.
• Structural Reforms:
  • Rationalize agricultural subsidies and energy tariffs to improve efficiency and financial viability.
  • Improve targeting of social assistance to better support the poor.
  • Reform the pension system to ensure long-term sustainability and reduce fiscal pressure.
• Fiscal Impact:
  • The proposed reforms are estimated to generate an average net fiscal saving of 3.9% of GDP annually over the medium term.
  • Immediate fiscal savings are expected from tariff reforms and subsidy rationalization, with further savings from structural adjustments.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a carefully sequenced fiscal reform strategy to address both short-term macroeconomic challenges and long-term structural issues. By reducing public sector size, improving targeting, and aligning fiscal policies with economic realities, Belarus can achieve a more sustainable and efficient economic model. The reforms proposed aim to reduce the fiscal burden, improve competitiveness, and ensure social protection for vulnerable groups.