2025-03-02-世界银行-财政规则的动态效应_初始条件重要吗_（英）_50页_1mb

The study examines the dynamic effects of fiscal rule adoption on government budget balances using data from 108 countries across two decades. Fiscal rules generally improve primary balances over time, but the magnitude and persistence depend on initial conditions. Key findings include:

• Effects are gradual, with primary balances increasing by about 1% of GDP over ten years after adoption.
• Advanced economies and non-commodity-exporters see stronger medium-term effects, while emerging markets and developing economies show short-term improvements that fade.
• Stronger institutions enhance rule effectiveness across all country types, but weaker institutions lead to diminishing returns.
• Initial economic conditions matter: Rules adopted during economic stability yield lasting benefits, while those introduced in crisis periods have weaker long-term impacts.
• Political factors: Greater consensus (less concentrated power) supports sustainable implementation, but political support alone is insufficient without strong institutions.

The results underscore that successful fiscal rule adoption relies on supportive environments, including robust institutions, favorable economic conditions, and broad political agreement.