> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** 宏观经济 # 宏观经济周报 # 2026年第九周 # 一、中国宏观 高频：本周综合景气指数小幅回落至99.91，仍处于荣枯线下方，延续年初以来围绕中枢窄幅震荡的格局，整体运行仍以结构性分化为主。从分项看，消费景气指数录得100，继续稳定在中性区间附近，波动幅度有限，显示居民需求端保持平稳。投资景气指数本周明显回调至99.39，是拖累综合指数走弱的主要因素，反映节后投资推进节奏偏缓、修复过程仍存反复。出口景气指数则在前期波动基础上再度回升至100.04，重新运行在荣枯线上方，外需端对整体景气形成一定支撑。生产景气指数小幅回落至99.96，但仍围绕临界水平运行，更多体现生产活动在阶段性调整中的自然收敛。总体来看，本周景气变化的核心在于投资端走弱与出口端改善形成对冲，综合指数的回调仍属节奏性波动，经济运行整体仍处于震荡企稳阶段。 2026年1月，社会融资规模增量7.22万亿元，同比多增1662亿元；社融存量同比增长 $8.2\%$ ，M2同比增长 $9\%$ ，人民币贷款增加4.71万亿元。第一，总量保持平稳扩张。社融与M2增速总体稳定，1月新增规模处于年初高位，体现财政发债与银行体系信贷投放共同支撑融资总量。第二，结构分化。政府债券净融资同比明显多增，是社融同比改善的重要来源。企业债券融资小幅多增，而对实体人民币贷款同比少增，显示信贷投放节奏较上年有所回落。第三，流动性环境相对宽松。货币市场利率同比下降，LPR保持不变，人民币存款单月增加8.09万亿元，资金面总体充裕，为后续信用扩张与经济运行提供基础条件。 图1：ICHI指数反映当下经济运行的冷热程度 资料来源：Wind、iFinD以及工银国际计算 2026年3月2日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com 尹学钰，博士 (852) 2683 3864 sherry.yin@icbci.com # 二、全球宏观 2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3投票结果作出终审裁决，认定特朗普政府此前根据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）对超过100个国家征收进口关税的行为超出了总统的法定行政权限。裁决后，美国海关与边境保护局已停止依据IEEPA征收相关关税。特朗普政府随即援引《1974年贸易法》第122条，临时加征 $10\%$ 全球关税，并对“部分”国家上调至 $15\%$ ，“对另一些可能更高”。对中国而言，关税预计将维持在当前水平。该裁决仅取消了依据IEEPA实施的所谓“芬太尼关税”和对等关税，不影响301关税、232关税及相关调查。 2月27日，欧洲中央银行（ECB）发布的最新消费者调查报告显示，欧元区消费者在2026年2月下调了部分通胀预期。调查结果指出，尽管过去一年通胀波动明显，但消费者对未来12个月的通胀预期中值有所收窄，反映出公众对欧央行维持价格稳定目标的信心增强。此外，受访者对未来三年的长期通胀预期保持相对稳定，且对名义收入增长的预期略有调整。作为欧央行制定货币政策的关键参考指标，此次预期的回落为决策者提供了更多缓冲空间，或将影响市场对欧央行在春季会议上调整利率路径的判断。 # 三、市场聚焦 2月25日，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）历史性地突破6000点大关，2026年开年以来涨幅达 $44\%$ ，是全球表现最佳的市场之一。受AI基础设施需求爆发影响，韩国1月出口额同比增长 $34\%$ ，其中半导体出口同比翻倍，极大提振了三星电子和SK海力士等核心权重股的盈利预期。与此同时，李在明政府力推的“企业价值提升计划”初见成效，通过强化财务透明度和股东回馈，旨在逐步扭转长期的“韩国折价”现象。 2月27日，日本总务省公布数据显示，2026年2月东京核心消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 $1.8\%$ ，涨幅较前一月的 $2.0\%$ 有所放缓，且为16个月来首次跌破日本央行设定的 $2\%$ 通胀目标。作为全国物价趋势的领先指标，东京通胀率的回落主要受食品价格涨势收敛及能源补贴政策影响。尽管日本央行官员近期暗示维持鹰派立场，但核心通胀水平破二削弱了市场对短期内连续加息的预期。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或“我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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