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Bahrain's Fragility and Security Sector Procurement Summary

Core Content

This document analyzes the political, economic, and security dynamics of Bahrain, focusing on the country's reliance on U.S. military support and the risks posed by its opaque and unaccountable security sector procurement practices. It highlights how the Bahraini monarchy maintains power through a combination of coercion, patronage, and sectarianism, while its economic model is increasingly unsustainable.

Main Points

• Strategic Importance of Bahrain to the U.S.
  Bahrain is a key U.S. ally and basing location in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. benefits from its deepwater port and airfield access, but a potential uprising could threaten U.S. military personnel and the strategic value of the base.

• Military Spending and Fiscal Strain
  Following the lifting of U.S. arms sales restrictions under the Trump administration, Bahrain has engaged in significant military procurement, with over $6 billion in known U.S. defense contracts between 2017 and 2018. This spending is occurring against a backdrop of severe fiscal challenges, with the country's overall budget around $10 billion annually.

• Economic Fragility
  Bahrain faces long-term economic instability due to its reliance on oil revenues, which account for 70% of government revenue. Public debt is at 88% of GDP, and foreign reserves are insufficient to cover even a month of imports. The regime has also engaged in off-budget oil revenue allocation, creating large discrepancies between declared and actual economic figures.

• Monarchy's Control Over Resources
  The royal family and its allies control the state's economy and security sector, extracting significant rents. The privy purse, which includes a share of oil revenues, is a major source of funding for the regime. The sovereign wealth fund, Mumtalamat, holds $11 billion in assets, but its funds do not go into the public budget. The monarchy also owns large tracts of land and has substantial financial interests in private companies.

• Sectarianism and Political Repression
  The regime has institutionalized sectarian divisions by excluding Shia from political and economic institutions. It has historically favored Sunnis in the security sector, with only 4% of security sector employees being Shia. The government also uses the threat of Iran to justify its repressive policies against the Shia majority.

• Shia Grievances
  Shia citizens face systemic political and economic marginalization. They are excluded from key positions in government and security, denied access to basic services, and face restrictions on employment. The lack of representation and the regime's use of the security sector to suppress dissent further fuel discontent.

• Cross-Sectarian Grievances
  While Shia are the primary targets of repression, Sunnis also express grievances, including concerns over corruption, the naturalization of non-citizens, and the impact of economic austerity measures like the 5% value-added tax. Both communities suffer from the regime's economic mismanagement and lack of public accountability.

• Security Sector Risks to Stability
  The security sector is a major employer and a tool of repression. Its lack of transparency and accountability, along with the regime's use of foreign personnel in key roles, undermines public trust. The regime's strategy of excluding Shia from the security sector contributes to instability and fuels political tensions.

Key Recommendations

• The U.S. should encourage greater transparency and accountability in Bahrain's security sector procurement to reduce the risk of domestic instability.
• The U.S. has leverage over the Bahraini monarchy due to its strategic interests and military presence.
• Reforming the security sector and addressing economic inequality could help improve the legitimacy and stability of the Bahraini regime.

Policy Recommendations for the United States

• Promote Security Sector Reform: Encourage the Bahraini royal family to increase transparency in defense procurement and ensure that the security sector is accountable to the public.
• Support Economic Reforms: Push for structural economic changes to reduce the regime's reliance on oil and address the growing fiscal deficit.
• Address Sectarian Imbalances: Advocate for inclusive political and economic policies that reduce the marginalization of the Shia population and promote cross-sectarian unity.
• Monitor and Condition Military Support: Use U.S. military and economic aid as leverage to ensure that the regime addresses both security and governance reforms.

Conclusion

Bahrain's regime is built on a fragile foundation of coercion, patronage, and sectarianism, which has led to widespread discontent among the population. The unchecked growth of the security sector, fueled by unaccountable procurement and economic mismanagement, threatens the long-term stability of the country and, by extension, U.S. interests in the region. The U.S. has a vested interest in ensuring that Bahrain remains a stable and cooperative ally, and should take active steps to encourage reform and transparency.