> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Australia Key Forecasts Summary ## Core Content Overview The document outlines key economic indicators and forecasts for Australia in June 2026, focusing on inflation, interest rates, business conditions, consumer behavior, and financial markets. It highlights the ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict on global inflation and supply chains, as well as the RBA's monetary policy stance. --- ## Inflation & Interest Rates ### Inflation Trends - **Headline inflation** fell to 4.0% over the year to May 2026, slightly below expectations. - **Trimmed mean inflation** rose to 3.6%, indicating a broadening of inflationary pressures since April. - The Middle East supply shock is contributing to second-order effects in consumer prices. - **Housing inflation and rents** are expected to accelerate, and the RBA is closely monitoring these as they are a significant and sticky component of the CPI basket. ### RBA Policy - The **RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35%** in June 2026. - The RBA emphasized that **risks are skewed towards further rate hikes**, despite the recent drop in oil prices. - **Market pricing** suggests a 65% chance of one more rate hike by December 2026. - **RBA is expected to hold rates steady in August** as well, with forecasts from NAB and Oxford Economics indicating no change in the cash rate target. ### Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations remain **elevated** but are beginning to ease. - The **trimmed mean inflation** is a key indicator, reflecting broader inflationary pressures. --- ## Business Indicators ### Business Conditions - **Business conditions stabilized** as tensions in the Middle East eased further. - **PMIs strengthened**, with the Composite PMI Output Index showing expansion (above 50). - The **unemployment rate** remained steady at 4.4% in May 2026. ### Regional Unemployment - **Australia**: 4.4% (May-26) - **NSW**: 4.3% - **Vic**: 4.9% - **Qld**: 3.9% - **WA**: 4.4% ### Business Confidence - **Business confidence rebounded** but remains **weak**. - **Forward orders index** increased in May, indicating some recovery in demand. --- ## Consumer Indicators ### Consumer Confidence - **Consumer confidence remains weak**, despite resilient household spending. - The confidence index is **below 100**, signaling pessimism. ### Household Spending - **Household spending rose in May** by 1.3% on a monthly basis. - **Annual growth** in household spending remained strong, at 5.5% in May 2026. - Spending trends by type show **resilience** in some areas and **declines** in others. ### House Prices - **House prices fell** in Sydney and Melbourne over the past six months. - The **rolling 6-month median dwelling price growth** in major cities is a concern for the housing market. --- ## Financial Markets ### Oil Prices - **Oil prices fell sharply** in June due to **US-Iran peace talks** and **increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz**. - **Brent crude** dropped to its lowest level since the conflict began, easing inflationary pressures. ### Equity Markets - **Equity markets were volatile** in June but ended flat. - Global equities, as measured by indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, showed mixed performance. ### Currency Movements - The **AUD weakened in June**, with the **USD per AUD** at 0.71. - The **trade-weighted index** also declined, reflecting broader currency movements. ### Commodity Prices - **Gold prices remained elevated**. - **LNG prices rose** slightly, while **iron ore prices declined**. --- ## Key Forecasts | Indicator | Latest (May-26) | Year-End 2026 (f) | |----------------------------------|----------------|-------------------| | Real GDP growth (y/y %) | 2.5 | 1.2 | | Unemployment rate (%) | 4.4 | 4.6 | | Core CPI inflation (y/y %) | 3.6 | 3.5 | | Cash rate target (%) | 4.35 | 4.35 | | 10-year bond yield (%) | 4.8 | 5.0 | --- ## Conclusion The RBA is maintaining a cautious stance on interest rates, with a focus on inflationary pressures, particularly in the housing sector. While headline inflation has eased, second-round effects from the Middle East conflict are still evident. Business conditions and consumer confidence remain mixed, with some resilience in spending despite weak sentiment. Financial markets are influenced by geopolitical developments and commodity price movements, with oil prices falling sharply and the AUD weakening. Overall, the economy shows signs of stabilization but is still navigating inflationary and global uncertainty.