2024-12-17-世界银行-对于最贫困经济体未来25年具有决定性意义_58页_720kb

Falling Graduation Prospects: Low-Income Countries in the 21st Century

Key Findings and Recommendations

1. Main Findings

• The rate at which low-income countries (LICs) graduate to middle-income status has slowed significantly since the 2010s, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Annual per capita GDP growth in LICs has averaged less than 0.1% since 2010, resulting in "15 lost years."
• Extreme poverty has ceased decreasing in LICs, with over 40% of the global population living in extreme poverty, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Structural transformation has stalled in many LICs, with limited progress in industrialization and productivity gains.
• LICs face challenges such as conflict, climate change, limited fiscal space, inadequate trade openness, and weak institutions.

2. Opportunities

• Demographic Dividend: LICs have younger populations, which could provide a large labor force if invested in education and skills.
• Natural Resources: LICs possess significant reserves of critical minerals (e.g., cobalt, lithium) and energy resources (e.g., solar potential), which can drive export-led growth.
• Trade Integration: Regional trade initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offer opportunities for economic gains.

3. Policy Priorities

• Increase Investment: Prioritize public and private investment in infrastructure, education, and human capital to boost productivity.
• Improve Governance and Institutions: Fight corruption, strengthen rule of law, and improve transparency to attract investment.
• Enhance Fiscal Space: Broaden tax bases, reduce subsidies, and manage debt sustainably to fund development projects.
• Support Structural Transformation: Promote agricultural productivity, industrial diversity, and services-led growth.
• Address Gender Gaps: Leverage female labor participation and education to drive economic growth and inclusion.

4. Global Support

• International donors should increase concessional financing and provide targeted debt relief to LICs in debt distress.
• Multilateral institutions should facilitate trade liberalization, climate adaptation funding, and technical assistance for LICs.
• Strengthen global cooperation to address climate change, which is disproportionately affecting LICs and undermining their development prospects.