2014年-世界发展银行全球_On_Shared_Prosperity_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_4页_1015kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: On Shared Prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa

Core Content

The document discusses the challenges of achieving shared prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, despite progress in reducing extreme poverty and increasing income growth for the bottom 40%. It highlights the underlying factors contributing to social discontent and outlines strategies for improvement.

Main Points

Progress in Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity

• The MENA region has made steady progress in reducing extreme poverty, with the percentage of people living on less than $1.25 a day declining in all economies except Yemen.
• The bottom 40% of the population has experienced higher income growth rates than the average in most MENA countries.
• The region has performed better than most other regions, except Latin America and the Caribbean, in terms of income growth for the bottom 40%.

Social Discontent Despite Progress

• Despite economic improvements, several MENA countries experienced revolutions and widespread public dissatisfaction.
• The document identifies key factors that have contributed to this discontent.

Causes of Social Discontent

1. High Unemployment Rates

   • Unemployment is among the highest in the world, particularly affecting youth and women.
   • Most jobs are informal, and "wasta" (connections) is seen as essential for securing good employment.

2. Poor Quality of Public Services

   • School enrollment is nearly universal, but learning outcomes are poor.
   • MENA students perform worse than their peers in developing countries on standardized 8th-grade math tests.
   • There is a shortage of qualified teachers and doctors, with high absenteeism rates in countries like Yemen, Egypt, and Morocco.

3. Regressive Energy Subsidies

   • Energy subsidies disproportionately benefit the wealthy and politically connected firms.
   • These subsidies are inefficient and reduce fiscal space for essential investments in health, education, and infrastructure.

4. Low Economic Growth

   • Per capita growth in the region has been low, averaging between 2% and 3% over the last decade.
   • This is below the growth rates of other middle-income economies.
   • Industrial policies have failed due to regulatory capture by elites and lack of dynamism in the private sector.

Post-2011 Situation

• Since 2011, the region has faced increased macroeconomic stress.
• Unemployment has risen due to slowed economic growth, with some countries experiencing collapse.
• Tourism and labor-intensive manufacturing have been particularly affected by political instability.
• Investment has declined, and fiscal and external balances have worsened.

Key Strategies for Boosting Shared Prosperity

1. Leveling the Playing Field

   • Regulations should not favor the privileged.
   • Replace general subsidies with targeted cash transfers to support vulnerable households.
   • Invest in improving human capital and institutional quality.

2. Enhancing Accountability

   • Citizens should hold the state accountable for its actions.
   • Measuring progress on issues like "wasta," regulatory capture, and service provider absenteeism is crucial.
   • Transparent data collection and public sharing will empower citizens to demand better governance and services.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes that while the MENA region has made strides in reducing poverty and improving income distribution, structural and institutional challenges such as high unemployment, poor public services, regressive subsidies, and low growth continue to undermine shared prosperity. Addressing these issues requires both policy reforms and increased civic engagement.

Key Information

• Poverty Reduction: Declined in all MENA economies except Yemen during the 2000s.
• Income Growth: Bottom 40% income growth has been higher than average in most countries.
• Unemployment: High, especially among youth and women, with many jobs being informal.
• Education Quality: Poor, with students lagging behind in math performance.
• Energy Subsidies: Regressive and inefficient, benefiting the wealthy and connected firms.
• Economic Growth: Low per capita growth compared to other middle-income regions.
• Regulatory Capture: Industrial policies are often captured by elites, hindering private sector growth.
• Post-2011 Impact: Political instability has worsened unemployment and macroeconomic stress.
• Strategies: Reform regulations, replace subsidies with targeted transfers, and improve accountability through transparency and data sharing.