20140831-IRENA-Global_Bioenergy_Supply_and_Demand_Projections_A_working_paper_for_REmap_2030_88页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary

Introduction and Methodology

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) conducted this analysis as part of its REmap 2030 initiative to double the global renewable energy share by 2030. Biomass is expected to become the dominant renewable energy source, accounting for 60% of global renewable energy use by 2030. The methodology uses a bottom-up approach, estimating biomass supply based on land availability, agricultural residues, forestry resources, and waste. Costs vary by region and biomass type, and demand was projected using national plans from key countries.

Key Findings

Global biomass demand is projected to double to 108 EJ (exajoules) by 2030, with 60% of this coming from OECD countries and Africa.
Supply potentials range widely, estimated between 97-147 EJ in 2030, with agricultural residues contributing up to 42-66 EJ.
Bioenergy trade could account for 20-40% of global demand by 2030, driven by surpluses in Asia and Europe.
Sustainability challenges include land-use competition with food production, water scarcity, and high GHG emissions if indirect land-use changes occur.

Results

Sector-wise, transport demand grows the most, with liquid biofuels accounting for 28%.
Bioenergy supply potential varies by region, with Asia and Europe leading due to vast land and forest resources.
International trade could supply up to 44 EJ by 2030 but requires infrastructure investments and sustainable practices.

Challenges

Land and Climate Change: Competition with food farming, sustainable biomass yields, and ecosystem impacts.
Sustainability Issues: Water use, soil degradation, biodiversity loss, and socio-economic impacts.
Policy and Coordination: Aligning energy, agricultural, and environmental policies; resolving trade-offs.
Supply Chain Logistics: High transportation costs and fragmentation in collection systems.

Policy Needs

Prioritize electrification and sustainable bioenergy deployment.
Incorporate life-cycle GHG emissions and land-use criteria in policies.
Promote bioenergy trade with sustainability certifications.
Enhance supply chain efficiency through pre-processing and logistics improvements.

Next Steps

IRENA will refine REmap analyses, develop GIS-based tools for policy planning, produce technology briefs, and collaborate on global sustainability frameworks.