20180615-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_9页_306kb

EM STRATEGY DAILY SUMMARY - 15 June 2018

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily market update from BNP Paribas on Emerging Markets (EM) strategy, covering key developments in Asian, CEEMEA, and Latam markets. It includes market analysis, expectations, and updates on the CLEER™ model, as well as legal and compliance notices.

Key Market Developments

Asia

• Market Status: Asian equity and FX markets are weaker this morning due to renewed trade concerns and a stronger US dollar.
• Trade Tensions: US President Donald Trump reportedly approved tariffs on Chinese goods worth about USD 50bn.
• Market Holidays: Markets in Indonesia, India, Malaysia, and Singapore are closed today for holidays.
• VAT Increase in Turkey: The Prime Minister announced a 2% increase in VAT to 20%, which may limit further liquidity support.

CEEMEA

• Russia: The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is expected to keep the policy rate on hold, following a RUB sell-off and comments from Governor Elvira Nabiullina indicating a slower pace of monetary easing and potential rate hikes if inflation risks arise.
• Interest Rate Curve: The rates curve has steepened, pricing out much of the expected monetary easing for 2018.
• CLEER™ Model Update: The CLEER™ model suggests that TRY, CZK, PLN, HUF, and RUB are currently undervalued, while ZAR is overvalued.
• Data Release: May headline CPI in Israel and core CPI for Poland will be published today.

Latam

• Argentina: Luis Caputo, former finance minister, will take over as central bank governor following Federico Sturzeneggar's resignation. This has led to a 6% depreciation of the Argentinian Peso amid risk-off sentiment.

Key Contacts

Legal and Compliance Information

• Non-Independent Research: This document is non-independent research and constitutes a marketing communication under MiFID II.
• Conflicts of Interest: The document may be subject to conflicts of interest due to interactions with sales and trading teams.
• Disclaimer:
  • The information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
  • No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on the document.
  • All estimates and opinions are subject to change without notice.
  • Indicative prices and models may differ from other sources and are not guaranteed.
• Confidentiality: The document is confidential and must not be copied, reproduced, or distributed without prior written consent.
• Regulatory Disclosures:
  • United States: The document includes important disclosures for options, ETFs, and securities not registered under US law.
  • UK: The document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch, which is authorised and regulated by the ECB, ACPR, and FCA.
  • France: The report is produced and distributed by BNPP SA and BNPP Arbitrage, both supervised by the ECB and ACPR.
  • Germany: Distributed by BNPP Niederlassung Deutschland, a branch of BNPP SA, supervised by ECB, ACPR, and BaFin.
  • Belgium: Distributed by BNPP Fortis SA/NV, supervised by ECB and National Bank of Belgium.
  • Ireland: Distributed by BNPP S.A., Dublin Branch, regulated in France by ECB and ACPR.
  • Italy: Distributed by BNPP Succursale Italia, supervised by ECB, ACPR, and AMF.

Additional Information

• Online Resources:
  • BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
  • BNP Paribas Strategy Website
• Bloomberg:
  • Fixed Income Research (BPFR)
  • G10 Interest Rate Research (BPBS)
  • Emerging Markets Research (BPFR)
  • Market Economics (BPEC)

Summary of Main Views

• Global Risk-off Sentiment: Persisting due to trade tensions and a stronger USD.
• Russia's Policy Rate: Expected to stay on hold, with potential for rate hikes if inflation risks materialize.
• CLEER™ Model Insights: TRY, CZK, PLN, HUF, and RUB are undervalued, while ZAR is overvalued.
• Argentina's Central Bank Transition: Luis Caputo takes over, leading to Peso depreciation and risk-off sentiment.
• Legal and Compliance: The document includes detailed disclaimers and regulatory disclosures to ensure compliance with financial regulations in multiple jurisdictions.