2025-06-05-Jefferies-瑞吉老年护理（REG）_老年护理法案_推迟4个月_13页_409kb

Regis Aged Care Equity Research Summary

Analysts: Vanessa Thomson, David Stanton
Issue Date: June 5, 2025

Key Changes

• The Australian Government delayed implementation of the new Aged Care Act by 4 months, effective from November 1, 2025 (originally July 1, 2025).
• RAD retention and DAP indexation are also delayed by 4 months.

Financial Implications for Regis

• RAD retention (2% of new RADs annually for the first 5 years): Delayed until November 1, 2025.
• DAP indexation: Commences from November 1, 2025, instead of July 1, 2025.
• EBITDA for FY26E reduced to AUD135.8m (previously AUD142.1m), unchanged for FY27E.
• Price target increased to AUD8.80 from AUD7.60, implying +16% upside.
• EPS revised down for FY26E due to implementation delays but expected to recover.

Regulatory & Industry Outlook

• The delayed Act is attributed to unpreparedness of the industry for transition.
• Aged care sector benefits from demographic aging and improved funding mechanisms under reforms.
• Regulatory support for the industry increases despite delays.

Upgrades and Growth Thesis

• Demand for aged care rises due to Australia's aging population.
• Improved sector viability through government funding reforms.
• Regis targets 96% occupancy in FY25E, supporting revenue growth.
• Base case valuation blends DCF and EV/EBITDA at AUD3.26 blended equity valuation.

Analyst Rating

• Buy with price target AUD8.80.
• Upside scenario (10.56x EV/EBITDA) and downside scenario (7.04x) highlighted.

Notes

• Summary covers financial impact, regulatory delay, valuation adjustment, and business outlook as of June 5, 2025.