> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** ```markdown # Summary of Global AI Trend Tracker - AI Expert Call #65: Optical Transceiver Market Updates ## Core Content This report summarizes insights from an AI Expert Call Series #65 hosted by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK), focusing on the optical transceiver market, including demand forecasts, pricing trends, and the adoption of new technologies like XPO (eXtra-dense Pluggable Optics) and OCS (Optical Circuit Switch). ## Market Demand for Optical Transceivers - **2026E Demand Estimates**: - **800G/1.6T Optical Transceivers**: Estimated demand ranges from 45-50 million units, but actual shipments are expected to be around 45 million units due to component shortages. - **1.6T Transceivers**: Main demand comes from: - **NVIDIA**: ~15 million units - **Google**: ~10 million units - **800G Transceivers**: Demand is expected to be distributed among: - **Meta**: ~14 million units - **Amazon AWS**: ~7-8 million units - **NVIDIA**: ~5 million units - **Google**: ~5 million units - **Oracle**: ~7 million units - **Microsoft**: ~3-4 million units - **2027E Forecast**: - **800G/1.6T Optical Transceivers**: Demand is expected to rise to 60-70 million units, with shipments likely at 55-60 million units. ## Market Trend for XPO (eXtra-dense Pluggable Optics) - **XPO Solution**: A 12.8T XPO solution, launched in OFC 2026, consists of 8 1.6T optical transceivers. - **Cooling Requirements**: Due to high power consumption, XPO modules require liquid cooling. - **Usage**: XPO modules are mainly used within the rack, while pluggable transceivers are still used for rack-to-rack connections. - **CSP Preference**: Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are more inclined to use CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and NPO (Near-field Package Optics) solutions instead of XPO. ## Pricing Trends for Optical Transceivers and Chips - **800G DR EML-based Transceiver**: ~USD380 - **800G FR Transceiver**: ~USD460 - **800G DR SiPh-based Transceiver**: USD350-360 - **Price Decline**: Prices are expected to drop by ~10% year-over-year in 2026 and potentially more than 10% in 2027E due to improved yield rates. - **1.6T Optical Transceivers**: - **DR SiPh-based**: USD1,000-1,100 - **DR EML-based**: USD1,100-1,200 - **FR**: ~USD1,300 - **EML Chip Prices**: - **100G EML**: Rose from USD5 to ~USD7 - **200G EML**: Currently at USD20-25 ## OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) Market Demand - **2026E Demand**: - **Google**: ~18,000 units (12,000 in-house, 6,000 outsourced to Coherent and Lumentum) - **Oracle**: ~2,000 units - **Other CSPs**: Still in negotiation stage - **2027E Forecast**: - Total demand may reach ~40,000 units, with Google expected to account for ~30,000 units. - **NVIDIA Adoption**: May use a combination of OCS and CPO solutions in the next-gen Dragonfly architecture, with OCS used outside the cabinet to establish a two-layer networking architecture. ## Key Information - **Component Shortages**: EML chips, isolators, and filters are causing delays in shipments for 800G/1.6T transceivers. - **Technology Evolution**: The market is transitioning from pluggable transceivers to more advanced solutions like XPO, CPO, and NPO. - **Price Trends**: Prices are declining due to improved manufacturing efficiency, but EML chips are showing upward trends. - **Market Dynamics**: CSPs are increasingly adopting optical interconnection solutions to meet data center performance and scalability needs. ## Analyst Information - **Analyst**: Bing Duan (NIHK) - **Contact**: bing.duan1@nomura.com | +852 2252 2141 ## Disclaimer and Legal Information - This report is produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK) and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. - The report contains information from third-party sources and is not independently verified. - The Nomura Group does not provide tax advice and disclaims liability for any use of the information. - The report is intended for professional investors and may not be distributed to retail investors. - All ratings and forecasts are based on the analyst's current views and may change without notice. - The report is subject to various regulatory disclosures and restrictions in different jurisdictions. ```