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报告摘要

Summary of Global AI Trend Tracker - AI Expert Call #65: Optical Transceiver Market Updates

Core Content

This report summarizes insights from an AI Expert Call Series #65 hosted by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK), focusing on the optical transceiver market, including demand forecasts, pricing trends, and the adoption of new technologies like XPO (eXtra-dense Pluggable Optics) and OCS (Optical Circuit Switch).

Market Demand for Optical Transceivers

2026E Demand Estimates:
- 800G/1.6T Optical Transceivers: Estimated demand ranges from 45-50 million units, but actual shipments are expected to be around 45 million units due to component shortages.
- 1.6T Transceivers: Main demand comes from:
  - NVIDIA: ~15 million units
  - Google: ~10 million units
- 800G Transceivers: Demand is expected to be distributed among:
  - Meta: ~14 million units
  - Amazon AWS: ~7-8 million units
  - NVIDIA: ~5 million units
  - Google: ~5 million units
  - Oracle: ~7 million units
  - Microsoft: ~3-4 million units
2027E Forecast:
- 800G/1.6T Optical Transceivers: Demand is expected to rise to 60-70 million units, with shipments likely at 55-60 million units.

Market Trend for XPO (eXtra-dense Pluggable Optics)

XPO Solution: A 12.8T XPO solution, launched in OFC 2026, consists of 8 1.6T optical transceivers.
Cooling Requirements: Due to high power consumption, XPO modules require liquid cooling.
Usage: XPO modules are mainly used within the rack, while pluggable transceivers are still used for rack-to-rack connections.
CSP Preference: Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are more inclined to use CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and NPO (Near-field Package Optics) solutions instead of XPO.

Pricing Trends for Optical Transceivers and Chips

800G DR EML-based Transceiver: ~USD380
800G FR Transceiver: ~USD460
800G DR SiPh-based Transceiver: USD350-360
Price Decline: Prices are expected to drop by ~10% year-over-year in 2026 and potentially more than 10% in 2027E due to improved yield rates.
1.6T Optical Transceivers:
- DR SiPh-based: USD1,000-1,100
- DR EML-based: USD1,100-1,200
- FR: ~USD1,300
EML Chip Prices:
- 100G EML: Rose from USD5 to ~USD7
- 200G EML: Currently at USD20-25

OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) Market Demand

2026E Demand:
- Google: ~18,000 units (12,000 in-house, 6,000 outsourced to Coherent and Lumentum)
- Oracle: ~2,000 units
- Other CSPs: Still in negotiation stage
2027E Forecast:
- Total demand may reach ~40,000 units, with Google expected to account for ~30,000 units.
NVIDIA Adoption: May use a combination of OCS and CPO solutions in the next-gen Dragonfly architecture, with OCS used outside the cabinet to establish a two-layer networking architecture.

Key Information

Component Shortages: EML chips, isolators, and filters are causing delays in shipments for 800G/1.6T transceivers.
Technology Evolution: The market is transitioning from pluggable transceivers to more advanced solutions like XPO, CPO, and NPO.
Price Trends: Prices are declining due to improved manufacturing efficiency, but EML chips are showing upward trends.
Market Dynamics: CSPs are increasingly adopting optical interconnection solutions to meet data center performance and scalability needs.

Analyst Information

Analyst: Bing Duan (NIHK)
Contact: bing.duan1@nomura.com | +852 2252 2141

Disclaimer and Legal Information

This report is produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK) and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
The report contains information from third-party sources and is not independently verified.
The Nomura Group does not provide tax advice and disclaims liability for any use of the information.
The report is intended for professional investors and may not be distributed to retail investors.
All ratings and forecasts are based on the analyst's current views and may change without notice.
The report is subject to various regulatory disclosures and restrictions in different jurisdictions.

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