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A Precarious Triangle: U.S.-China Strategic Stability and Japan

Core Content

This document analyzes the complex and precarious relationship between U.S.-China strategic stability and Japan's role in the region. It highlights how the growing military and economic power of China, combined with the unresolved tensions in Northeast Asia, particularly involving North Korea, has made strategic stability a critical concern for U.S. defense planning and alliance management. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace facilitated a trilateral workshop in 2017 involving American, Chinese, and Japanese security experts to improve mutual understanding and explore potential pathways to strategic stability.

Main Views and Key Information

U.S.-China Strategic Stability

• Rising Importance: U.S.-China strategic nuclear relations are becoming more salient due to increased military tensions and mutual suspicion in Northeast Asia.
• Traditional Focus: Strategic stability traditionally refers to the suppression of nuclear use and arms races, but the document suggests it may need to be redefined in the context of modern security challenges.
• Unacceptable Damage: The concept of "unacceptable damage" is central to understanding strategic stability, but its interpretation remains ambiguous.
• Extended Deterrence: Strategic stability could affect U.S. extended deterrence commitments to Japan, raising concerns about how China perceives its security in relation to the U.S.-Japan alliance.

Japan's Role

• Alliance and Deterrence: The U.S.-Japan alliance is seen by some American experts as contributing to crisis stability by deterring Chinese military actions in the East China Sea.
• Militarization Concerns: Chinese participants worry that Japan's rising militarism and alliance with the U.S. could undermine China's strategic stability, particularly by enhancing U.S. first-strike capabilities.
• Vulnerability Asymmetry: Japan and South Korea are perceived as more vulnerable compared to China and North Korea, which have developed road-mobile missile capabilities and expeditionary military forces.
• Stability-Instability Paradox: Japanese experts warn that if mutual vulnerability becomes too strong, it could lead to increased conventional conflict, which might paradoxically increase the risk of nuclear use.

North Korea's Impact

• Immediate Threat: North Korea's nuclear and missile programs are considered the most pressing threat, as they could stimulate further Chinese and U.S. responses.
• Escalation Risks: Chinese and U.S. actions in response to North Korea, such as missile defense deployments, are viewed by some as contributing to arms race instability.
• Countermeasures: China may respond by increasing its nuclear arsenal, modernizing its missiles, or investing in cyber and space-based capabilities to counter perceived U.S. advantages.

Findings and Recommendations

Key Findings

• Mutual Vulnerability: While some U.S. and Japanese participants see mutual vulnerability as a potential stabilizer, Chinese experts are skeptical and believe it could be a source of instability.
• Confidence Building: There is a need for confidence-building measures and transparency in decision-making processes, especially in the nuclear and conventional domains.
• Trilateral Dialogue: The workshop highlighted the importance of trilateral discussions to address shared concerns and build a more comprehensive understanding of strategic stability.
• Cyber and Space: Emerging domains such as cyber and space are increasingly relevant to strategic stability and should be included in future dialogues.

Recommendations

• Enhanced Dialogue: Regular and structured trilateral discussions should be encouraged to address issues like mutual vulnerability, crisis management, and the role of Japan in U.S.-China strategic stability.
• Confidence Building Measures: The development of confidence-building measures and transparency mechanisms could help reduce tensions and promote stability.
• Addressing North Korea: Continued efforts to manage North Korea's nuclear threat should be a priority, as it could affect the stability of the U.S.-China relationship and the broader East Asian security environment.
• Revisiting Strategic Stability: Strategic stability should be redefined to include not only nuclear aspects but also conventional military balance, political and economic relations, and emerging security domains.

Conclusion

The document underscores the challenges of achieving strategic stability in the U.S.-China relationship in the context of Japan's security concerns and North Korea's nuclear ambitions. It calls for a more nuanced and inclusive approach to strategic stability, involving all three countries and addressing both traditional and emerging security issues. The workshop provided a platform for dialogue and mutual understanding, but the lack of consensus highlights the need for continued efforts to build trust and cooperation in the region.