2021-09-15-Credit_Suisse-如果说软件正在吞噬世界_那么支付也将受到影响_336页_9mb
报告摘要
Summary of Credit Suisse Payments, Processors, & FinTech Report
Core Content
This report from Credit Suisse provides an in-depth analysis of the payments, processors, and FinTech industry, focusing on key themes, market dynamics, and company-specific insights. It outlines the current state of the industry, including the impact of the pandemic, the role of technology, and the evolution of financial services.
Main Themes
Global eCommerce & Software-led Payments
- Global eCommerce as a key growth source: Expected to drive significant expansion in the payments sector.
- Checkout buttons/digital wallets: Increasingly important for user convenience and transaction efficiency.
- Fraud & chargebacks: A critical concern for card-based transactions.
- Software-led & integrated payments: Emphasizes the integration of financial services into software platforms.
- Embedded finance: Expanding the role of software platforms in providing financial services.
- Cross-border payments volumes: Growing due to increased globalization and digital adoption.
- BNPL offerings: Rising as a consumer finance tool and a driver for merchant growth.
- Cash-to-card conversion: Driven by contactless payments, loyalty programs, and regulatory changes.
NextGen FinTech Ecosystems
- Consolidation & scaling: Platforms are consolidating and expanding their capabilities.
- Open Banking & Open Finance: Expanding beyond just payments to include broader financial services.
- A2A payments: Gaining traction with the rise of Open Banking.
- BigTech in FinTech: Highlighted with Apple's efforts in the space.
- Neobanks: Scaling rapidly and becoming a key player in the financial ecosystem.
- B2B/Corporate Payments: Evolving to support SMEs and omnichannel integration.
- Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS): Evolving to offer more integrated financial solutions.
Regulation & Litigation
- Two-Factor Authentication: Increasing security requirements in the payments space.
- Global payments regulation: Varies by region and is a key factor in shaping the industry.
- European payments regulation: Stronger than in the US, affecting business models.
- US vs. international FinTech regulations: Differing regulatory environments impact market dynamics.
- Bank licenses for US FinTechs: A critical hurdle for expansion and compliance.
Threats to Monitor
- Amazon's expansion into payments: A major threat with its growing ecosystem.
- Alipay & WeChat expansion: Increasing acceptance beyond China.
- Cryptocurrency impact: A disruptive force in the payments ecosystem.
- DeFi: Offering alternatives to traditional financial services.
- Modern platforms in EM: Emerging as competitors to established players.
- National payment schemes: Alternatives to Visa and Mastercard in various regions.
Key Companies & Ratings
| Ticker | Company Name | Market Cap ($b) | CS Rating | CS Target | Brief Take on Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | Visa | 492 | OP | 285 | Strong US contactless growth and evolving cross-border mix |
| MA | Mastercard | 346 | OP | 420 | Expansion in international markets and multi-rail approach |
| PYPL | PayPal | 341 | OP | 315 | eCommerce pure-play with potential for growth in multiple areas |
| SQ | Square | 129 | OP | 300 | Strong ecosystem and growth through integration and expansion |
| ADYEN-NL | Adyen | 82 | OP | 2950€ | Global single platform with strong enterprise exposure |
| FIS | Fidelity National | 77 | OP | 160 | High recurring revenue and cross-sell opportunities |
| FISV | Fiserv | 75 | OP | 135 | Focus on core businesses and improving revenue mix |
| GPN | Global Payments | 49 | OP | 225 | Strong exposure to growing channels and embedded finance |
| AFRM | Affirm | 39 | NEUTRAL | 105 | BNPL platform with growth potential in multiple verticals |
| RKT | Rocket Companies | 33 | NEUTRAL | 19 | Digital mortgage platform with strong growth and tech support |
| FLT | FleetCor Technologies | 22 | NEUTRAL | 275 | Strong cross-sell and recurring revenue model |
| LSPD | Lightspeed Commerce | 18 | OP | 115 | Growing embedded finance and financial services offerings |
| NVEI-TSE | Nuvei | 18 | OP | 145 | High growth in eCommerce and niche verticals |
| SOFI | SoFi | 14 | NEUTRAL | 16.50 | One-stop digital banking platform with strong customer base |
| JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | 13 | NEUTRAL | 170 | Resilient financial model with recurring revenue |
| WU | Western Union | 9 | UP | 23 | Strong brand and compliance infrastructure, but limited online moats |
| WEX | WEX | 8 | NEUTRAL | 210 | Bullish on core businesses but neutral due to valuation |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments | 7 | OP | 100 | Integrated payments with strong growth potential |
| PSFE | Paysafe | 6 | OP | 12 | Focus on online gaming and integrated solutions |
| RSKD | Riskified | 5 | OP | 34 | Enterprise-level risk management platform |
| VRRM | Verra Mobility | 3 | OP | 18.50 | Strong growth in government and commercial segments |
| LDI | LoanDepot | 2 | OP | 15 | Digital mortgage lending with less exposure to volatile markets |
| RPAY | Repay | 2 | OP | 30 | Integrated payments in niche lending verticals |
| MLNK | MeridianLink | 2 | NEUTRAL | 27.50 | SaaS solutions for lending and credit data |
| PAYA | Paya | 1 | OP | 14 | Expansive TAM with potential for growth in multiple verticals |
| IMXI | International Money Express | 1 | NEUTRAL | 18.50 | Strong focus on emerging markets and digital initiatives |
Top Picks
- Square (SQ): Leading in the intersection of software, payments, and embedded financial services. Key catalysts include integration of Afterpay, expansion of SMB digital banking, and growth in international markets.
- PayPal (PYPL): Near pure-play on eCommerce with a large TAM and potential for growth in multiple areas, including BNPL and cryptocurrency.
- Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD): Focused on embedded finance, with recent acquisitions and growth in financial services offerings.
Key Insights
- The pandemic accelerated the shift to digital commerce and payments, with contactless and digital wallet adoption increasing.
- Consolidation and M&A are key growth strategies for many FinTech and payments companies.
- Regulatory changes and the rise of Open Banking are reshaping the industry landscape.
- Emerging markets and alternative payment schemes are creating new opportunities and competition.
- The integration of financial services into software platforms is a major trend, enhancing value and user engagement.
Conclusion
The payments, processors, and FinTech industry is evolving rapidly, driven by digital transformation, regulatory changes, and the rise of new technologies. Companies that can integrate financial services into their platforms and adapt to the changing market dynamics are likely to lead in this space.
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