2025-06-04-Jefferies-纳博特斯克（6268）_利润预测更新；等待长期增长故事_13页_553kb

Nabtesco Equity Research Summary

Key Overview - Nabtesco Corp.

• Company: Japan-based manufacturer of precision reduction gears, aircraft and hydraulic products, transportation equipment, and automation systems. Key segments include reduction gears for industrial robots and components for railroad vehicles and aircraft.

Current Rating and Price Target

• Rating: Hold (as of June 4, 2025)
• Price Target: ¥2,500 (up from ¥2,345), based on an EV/EBITDA of 8x, reflecting below-average valuation during 2022-2025.
• Target Estimate Change: Revising FY25 operating profit (OP) forecast to ¥18.3bn, up from ¥15bn, driven by better sales volumes and high-margin maintenance work in railroad and aircraft equipment segments.

Profit Forecast Update and Growth Story

• Profit Growth: Expect resumption of profit growth in FY25 after a slowdown from FY21, driven by completion of destocking in the robot market, leading to order recovery.
• Upside Factors: Potential for higher sales volume gains and improving demand; diversification into segments like semiconductors, material handling, and telecommunications.
• Downside Risks: Lingering demand uncertainties in reduction gear business (highly exposed to industrial robots), potential tariff costs (involving flight actuators), and ongoing weakness in China's excavator demand.

Business Segment Highlights

• Reduction Gear: Dominant segment but vulnerable to robot demand cycles; management seeking opportunities in new lucrative areas.
• Railroad Vehicle Equipment: Expected to drive sales growth from component replacement in China's high-speed rail.
• Aircraft Equipment: Forecasts sales doubling in FY27 compared to FY23 levels; includes flight control actuators and aircraft component replacements.
• Defense Equipment: Potential for growth, with products used in defense applications, though forecasts indicate a need for market re-rating to identify secular drivers.

Risks and Catalysts

• Positive Catalysts: Higher OP than consensus, improved excavator demand from Chinese brands, Boeing production boosts, and new large projects in automatic doors.
• Negative Catalysts: Slower total orders, deterioration in market position of Japanese hydraulic excavator makers, and production cutbacks at Boeing.
• Growth Story: Requires management to identify and capitalize on secular trends beyond cyclical exposure, such as carbon neutrality efforts and ESG-aligned new products.

Valuation and Market Position

• Valuation: Current market cap of ¥281.5bn, with an EV/EBITDA of 8x, below the average for the period.
• Key Metrics: P/E target based on consensus; historical low valuation suggests upside if re-rating occurs.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue and OP: Revising FY25 revenue to ¥335bn and OP to ¥18.3bn; 2025 OP forecast below guidance due to tariff impacts.
• Performance Indicators: Stronger-than-expected sales volumes in specific segments could lead to improved financial results.

This summary captures the core elements of the Jefferies equity research report on Nabtesco, focusing on financial outlook, risks, growth opportunities, and valuation metrics.