2026年全球合作晴雨表报告_37页_4mb

Summary of the Global Cooperation Barometer 2026

Core Content

The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 is the third edition of a report that evaluates the state of global cooperation across five key pillars: Trade and Capital, Innovation and Technology, Climate and Natural Capital, Health and Wellness, and Peace and Security. The report highlights how global cooperation is evolving in response to a complex and uncertain world, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical tensions, economic shifts, and technological advancements.

Main Findings

• Overall cooperation remains steady, but its structure is changing. While the level of cooperation is largely unchanged from previous years, the composition is shifting, with a notable decline in multilateralism and an increase in smaller, more flexible cooperative arrangements.
• Trade and Capital: Cooperation in this area is flattening, with goods trade growing slower than GDP. There is a reconfiguration in trade partners, with a shift toward more aligned economies. Services and capital flows show positive momentum, especially in aligned economies.
• Innovation and Technology: Cooperation is rising, driven by increased cross-border data flows and digital services. While restrictions on critical resources and technologies have increased, particularly between the US and China, new cooperation formats are emerging, especially in AI and 5G infrastructure.
• Climate and Natural Capital: Cooperation is growing, with significant investment in clean technologies and a focus on decarbonization and energy security. However, it still falls short of global climate goals. Regional groups like the EU and ASEAN are working together to align with global objectives.
• Health and Wellness: Cooperation remains stable, with health outcomes improving post-pandemic. However, development assistance for health (DAH) is under severe pressure, and multilateral health organizations are struggling to maintain support. The resilience of health outcomes is due to long-term improvements, but there is a risk of reversal.
• Peace and Security: Cooperation is declining, with all metrics falling below pre-pandemic levels. Conflicts and forced displacement have increased, and multilateral peacekeeping is struggling to keep up. Despite this, regional cooperation mechanisms are gaining traction.

Key Trends and Dynamics

• Multilateralism is under strain, but cooperation through smaller coalitions is increasing. This is often referred to as "minilateralism" or "plurilateralism".
• Shared national interests are driving cooperation, particularly in areas with clear economic or strategic benefits.
• Technological advancements are reshaping global cooperation, especially in AI, 5G, and critical minerals.
• Regional initiatives are becoming more important, as global institutions struggle to respond effectively to new challenges.
• The pandemic and recent geopolitical shocks have accelerated shifts in global cooperation, leading to new forms of collaboration and increased focus on domestic interests.

Recommendations

• Re-map international engagement to adapt to the changing landscape.
• Strengthen resilience by building new capabilities.
• Find new forums for cooperation that match the specific needs of each issue.
• Refocus on dialogue and constructive engagement to foster progress.

Methodology and Data

• The barometer is based on 41 indicators across five pillars.
• Metrics are indexed to 2020 to highlight trends before and after the pandemic.
• Data normalization ensures comparability across different economic and population scales.
• Equal weighting is applied to both action and outcome metrics within each pillar.
• Partial-year data and projections are used where full data is not available.

Survey Insights

• 85% of experts and council members perceive global cooperation as "less cooperative" or "much less cooperative" in 2025 compared to 2024.
• Negative sentiment among executives is observed, especially in trade and innovation areas.
• Peace and security is identified as the most deteriorated area.
• 57% of executives still see opportunity for cooperation, despite the challenges.

Conclusion

The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 reveals a resilient but evolving landscape of global collaboration. While multilateral cooperation is declining, new forms of cooperation are emerging, particularly in areas where shared interests and strategic goals converge. The report underscores the importance of dialogue, flexibility, and regional cooperation in navigating the complexities of the modern global environment.