> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CMBI Credit Commentary Summary ## Core Content Overview This document provides a detailed market update and credit commentary from CMBI Fixed Income Department, covering recent fixed income market movements, macroeconomic news, and analyst views on specific issuers and bonds. --- ## Key Market Movements - **China Bonds**: - The new CHIBAB 31 was 1-2bps tighter from RO at T+53. - The new CNH HSBC 34 rose 0.1pt, while the new HSBC 30 remained unchanged. - China IG spreads widened modestly, with the new CSILTD '31 FRN at SOFR+60 at close. - Benchmark Chinese TMTs (KUAISH, TENCNT, BABA) closed 1-2bps wider. - Bank T2s and lifer papers held up well. - CNH activity slowed as the recent rally paused. - **Korea Bonds**: - New SMIND 30 closed 2bps wider. - HYUELE remained unchanged, despite S&P upgrading SK Hynix to A- from BBB+ with a positive outlook. - KR industrials and financials showed a skew toward selling. - **Japan Bonds**: - PB selling occurred in older MUFG/MIZUHO/SUMIBK '32 FRNs. - Better buying was seen in NOMURA. - Two-way interest in NIPLIF '31s/'33s. - Japanese insurance subs struggled to find buyers. - SOFTBK curve found support from short covering and tactical demand. - **Global Market**: - European AT1s consolidated as rates recovered. - London flows remained biased toward selling. - Asian markets, including Chinese RMs, were willing to buy front-end and belly papers in higher-quality names (HSBC, UBS, BNP). - USD LGFVs showed improved demand, with several names compressing through 7% and 8% yield thresholds. - LUSOIB 3.6 Perp initially rose 0.4pt but fell to 0.1pt below par due to weak liquidity. --- ## Macro News Recap - **U.S. Markets**: - S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all rose by 0.16%–0.22% on Wednesday. - U.S. Crude Oil Inventories increased by +4.405mn barrels, exceeding market expectations of +0.2mn. - U.S. 2/5/10/30-year UST yields were at 4.19%/4.35%/4.65%/5.19%, respectively. --- ## Analyst Comments on MPEL/STCITY - **Performance**: - MPEL's GGR market share remained broadly stable at c15% in 1H26 and FY25. - COD Macau's adj. EBITDA declined 34.5% yoy to USD148mn in 2Q26, due to lower win rates and mass market activity. - Studio City's adj. EBITDA edged up 2.3% yoy to USD207mn in 1H26, despite a 9.2% yoy decline in 2Q26. - Altira Macau's adj. EBITDA improved to USD6mn in 1H26 from USD0.2mn in 1H2. - **Financial Position**: - As of Jun'26, MPEL had USD913mn in cash and equivalents, USD1.2bn in credit facilities, and USD6.1bn in net debt. - The next major USD bond maturity is USD600mn MPEL 5.625 07/17/27. - MPEL has good access to funding markets, as evidenced by Studio City's USD300mn issuance in May'26. - Near-term refinancing risk is considered manageable, with no major maturities in 2026. - **Credit Views**: - Macau gaming bonds are viewed as relatively lower-beta and good carry plays. - USD issuance across the sector is expected due to scheduled maturities and manageable funding costs. - Top picks include MPELs, STCITYs, and SJMHOL 31. - WYNMAC '27 and '29 are considered yield pick-up plays, trading at a premium of c40-50bps over its U.S. parent. - Neutral stance on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOL 28 due to valuation concerns. --- ## Offshore Asia New Issues ### Priced Issues: - **Chiba Bank**: - Size: USD300mn - Tenor: 5yr - Coupon: 4.836% - Priced: T+53 - Issue Rating: A1/-/- ### Pipeline Issues: - **HDFC Bank** (USD): - 3yr: T+120, Rating: Baa3/BBB/- - 5yr: T+130, Rating: Baa3/BBB/- - **KB Securities** (USD): - 3yr: T+115, Rating: A3/-/- - **Mitsui & Co** (USD): - 5yr: T+85, Rating: A3/A/- --- ## Top Movers in the Last Trading Day | Top Performers | Price | Change | |------------------------------|-------|--------| | TACHEM 5.65 07/05/54 | 94.4 | +1.6 | | MTRC 5 1/4 04/01/55 | 95.9 | +1.4 | | RIO LN 5 7/8 03/14/65 | 97.6 | +1.4 | | TACHEM 5.8 07/05/64 | 94.7 | +1.4 | | RIO LN 5 3/4 03/14/55 | 97.4 | +1.3 | | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | |------------------------------|-------|--------| | GLPSP 7.865 PERP | 61.3 | -1.0 | | TSIVMG 1.6 12/17/39 | 47.3 | -1.0 | | GLPSP 4.6 PERP | 56.5 | -1.0 | | VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 | 51.8 | -0.8 | | GLPSP 9 3/4 05/20/28 | 91.7 | -0.8 | --- ## Important Disclosures - **Investment Risks**: There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. - **No Individual Advice**: The report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - **No Liability**: CMBIGM is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred from reliance on the information in the report. - **Conflicts of Interest**: CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies discussed, which could affect the report's objectivity. - **Distribution Restrictions**: - **UK**: Only for persons under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a)–(d) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. - **US**: Intended for "major US institutional investors" only. - **Singapore**: Distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser, to specified investors. --- ## Author Certification - The author certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect personal opinions and that no compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views in the report. - The author and their associates have not traded in the stocks covered within 30 days prior to the report's release and will not do so within 3 business days after. - The author does not serve as an officer of any Hong Kong-listed companies covered and has no financial interests in them. --- ## Summary This report highlights recent fixed income market movements, macroeconomic updates, and credit views on key issuers in Asia, particularly in the gaming and financial sectors. It outlines the performance of various bonds, the impact of recent news, and the outlook for future issuances. Analysts remain positive on Macau gaming bonds, especially MPEL and STCITY, due to their manageable refinancing risk and good funding access. The report also includes details on new issues and the pipeline for offshore Asian bonds, as well as important disclosures regarding the use and distribution of the report.