2015年-世界发展银行全球_Operational_Guidelines_and_Procedures_for_Measuring_the_Real_Size_of_the_World_Economy___2011_International_Comparison_Program_503页_7mb

Summary of the 2011 International Comparison Program (ICP) Operational Guidelines and Procedures for Measuring the Real Size of the World Economy

Core Content

The 2011 International Comparison Program (ICP) is a global statistical initiative aimed at measuring the real size of the world economy by calculating purchasing power parities (PPPs) to compare the price levels and economic sizes across countries. The program is managed by the World Bank in collaboration with other international organizations and provides a comprehensive framework for data collection, validation, and PPP computation.

The ICP 2011 round expanded the number of participating economies to 199, covering eight regions, including seven geographical regions and one comprising EU and OECD economies. It also included two bilateral comparisons. The program introduced several methodological and operational improvements to enhance the accuracy and transparency of PPP estimates.

Main Approaches and Data Requirements

The ICP encompasses main price surveys and special surveys, each with specific data collection and validation procedures:

• Household Consumption: Focuses on estimating consumption patterns and PPPs for various goods and services. The process includes developing a global core list, stratifying economies, and validating data at national, regional, and global levels.
• Fast-Evolving Technology Items: Addresses the challenge of rapidly changing technology products and services, requiring special attention to data collection and price adjustments.
• Water Services: Covers data on water tariffs and consumption, with guidelines on how to estimate and validate these data.
• Private Health and Education: Details the methodologies for collecting data on private health services and education expenditures, including item specifications, pricing rules, and survey forms.
• Housing: Involves estimating expenditures on dwelling services, calculating PPPs for housing, and validating data using the user cost method.
• Government Expenditures: Focuses on the compensation of government employees and related data, including pay scales, occupation types, and validation at different levels of experience.
• Machinery and Equipment: Includes a product list, pricing guidelines, and validation procedures for these goods.
• Construction and Civil Engineering: Describes the selection of items, resource mix estimation, and validation of construction-related data.

Each section outlines the data types, survey frameworks, pricing rules, and validation methods necessary for accurate PPP computation.

Key Validation Procedures

The ICP includes a multi-stage validation process to ensure data quality:

• National Level Validation: Ensures data collected at the country level is accurate and representative.
• Regional Level Validation: Compares data across regions and checks for consistency and comparability.
• Global Level Validation: Validates PPPs and expenditure weights across all participating economies.

Validation tools include Quaranta Tables, Dikhanov Tables, and coefficient of variation (CV) matrices. These tools help identify discrepancies and ensure that PPP estimates are reliable and consistent.

PPP Computation and Linking

The ICP employs various methods for computing and linking PPPs:

• Country Product Dummy (CPD) Method: Used for elementary aggregation of prices and expenditures.
• GEKS Method: A more advanced method for aggregating PPPs beyond the basic heading level.
• Linking Procedures: Involves aligning PPPs across different years and regions, ensuring that the real size of economies is accurately represented over time.

These methods are supported by detailed annexes, notes, and references that provide further clarification and guidance.

Data Sources and Sampling

The ICP relies on a variety of data sources, including national accounts, household surveys, and specialized questionnaires for different sectors. The program also emphasizes sampling methodologies, ensuring that the data collected is representative and meets the required target precision and relative standard deviation thresholds.

Operational Framework

The ICP is organized around a national accounts framework, which includes the classification of expenditures, data types, and methodologies for splitting GDP into different categories. The MORES model is used to guide the process of GDP splitting, with a conditional step-by-step approach to selecting the most appropriate method for each economy.

Conclusion

The ICP 2011 Operational Guidelines and Procedures provide a detailed and structured approach to measuring the real size of the world economy through PPPs. It outlines the methodologies, data requirements, validation processes, and computational techniques used in the program. These guidelines are essential for ensuring the accuracy, transparency, and consistency of PPP estimates, which are critical for international economic comparisons.

The guide is a comprehensive resource for statistical offices, researchers, and policymakers, supporting the ongoing development and refinement of the ICP. It aims to improve methodological standards and operational efficiency in future rounds of the program.