2008年-世界发展银行全球_Macro-Micro_Feedback_Links_of_Irrigation_Water_Management_in_Turkey_81页_435kb

Summary of "Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management in Turkey"

Core Content

This working paper investigates the macroeconomic and microeconomic effects of changes in irrigation water management in Turkey, focusing on the interactions between water allocation, agricultural production, and the broader economy. The study employs an economy-wide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, incorporating detailed agricultural and non-agricultural water use, and analyzing the impact of three key scenarios: increased world agricultural prices, urbanization, and climate change.

Main Points

• Agricultural Dependence on Water:
  Agriculture in Turkey is heavily dependent on water availability, with about half of crop production relying on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture consumes approximately 75% of total water used, which corresponds to 30% of renewable water availability.

• Water Resource Overview:
  Turkey's water resources are unevenly distributed across regions and basins. The annual mean precipitation is around 643 mm, but varies significantly from 250 mm in the central regions to over 3,000 mm in the Eastern Black Sea. The total renewable water potential is 234 km³ per year, with 98 km³ used for surface water and 14 km³ for groundwater.

• Water Use by Sectors:
  Water use is primarily allocated to irrigation (74% in 2004), followed by domestic (15%) and industry (10%). The total water use in 2004 was 40,100 hm³, with irrigation accounting for the largest share.

• Irrigated Area and Regional Distribution:
  The total irrigated area in Turkey reached 5 million hectares in 2007, with over 40% located in the Western region. The irrigation methods are largely inefficient, with 90% relying on gravity systems. About 35% of the irrigated area is used for rainfed agriculture.

• Agricultural Sector Overview:
  The agricultural sector is a major employer, accounting for 27% of the total workforce and 70% of the rural workforce. However, its share in GDP has declined from 30% in the late 1970s to 9% in 2007. Agricultural value-added growth has been slower than the overall economy, averaging 1.3% per annum.

• Water Policies and Infrastructure:
  The development of irrigation infrastructure has been a key focus of water policies. However, the transfer of schemes to users has not been accompanied by sustainable practices. The Ninth National Development Plan emphasizes efficient water use, but the current irrigation policy framework remains focused on infrastructure development rather than resource optimization.

• Key Scenarios and Their Impacts:

  • Scenario 1: Increase in World Prices: Leads to higher domestic prices and reduced agricultural production, particularly in irrigated areas. It also results in a decline in agricultural exports and an increase in imports.
  • Scenario 2: Urbanization: Results in a shift of water from rural to urban areas, leading to a decline in overall crop production. Rainfed land production increases, but irrigated land production, especially for maize and fruits, decreases significantly.
  • Scenario 3: Climate Change: Has the most significant macroeconomic effects, with a sharp decline in agricultural production and a greater impact on net trade. The Mediterranean and Southeast regions are especially vulnerable due to climate variability and limited water availability.

Key Findings

• Water Scarcity and Efficiency: Water scarcity and inefficient use are critical challenges. The reliance on gravity-based irrigation systems and the limited water availability per capita (around 1,700 m³/person/year) indicate the need for more efficient water management practices.

• Policy Implications: The current agricultural subsidization policies have not been effective in promoting structural changes. The paper highlights the necessity for reforming irrigation policies to address water competition and improve sustainability.

• Future Research and Policy Recommendations: The study suggests that future research should focus on the role of water in the economy and recommend policies that encourage efficient and sustainable water use, particularly in the context of climate change and urbanization.

Conclusion

The paper underscores the importance of integrating macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives in irrigation water management. It highlights the need for comprehensive policy reforms that address the growing competition for water resources and support sustainable agricultural development in Turkey.