2023-10-12-美联储-安全资产创造_系统风险和总需求理论_84页_1mb

Safe Asset Creation & Systemic Risk: Financial intermediaries create private safe assets by taking leverage, generating systemic risk (potential crisis severity) through capital liquidation. Governments avoid systemic risk via tax powers.

Dynamic Interaction: Exogenous systemic risk reduces aggregate demand through precautionary saving; conversely, aggregate demand influences systemic risk via utilization rates and bank leverage. This interaction creates a "low” policy rate trap.

Safety Traps: Two types exist:

1. Conventional: Shortage of both public & private safe assets.
2. Risk-Intensive: Shortage of public safe assets, oversupply of private safe assets, worsened by strong dynamic interactions.

Key Drivers:

• Higher systemic risk increases precautionary saving, depressing consumption.
• Liquidity constraints amplify demand-driven recessions at the effective lower bound.

Policy Implications:

• Monetary/Fiscal: Use deficits at ZLB to crowd out private safe assets, reduce systemic risk.
• Macroprudential: At ZLB, stricter bank regulations can stimulate aggregate demand by reducing crisis severity.
• QE: Transfers risk from private banks.

Theoretical Novelty: First unified model demonstrating that safe asset shortages derive from dynamic interactions between systemic risk and aggregate demand, altering policy channels.