20220427-招银国际-药明康德-603259.SH-Successful_business_model_drives_sustainable_earnings_growth_4页_1007kb
报告摘要
WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) Company Update Summary
Core Content and Key Highlights
WuXi AppTec reported 1Q22 revenue of RMB8,474 million, representing a 71% YoY increase. The Company's attributable recurring net income rose by 107% YoY to RMB1,714 million, and attributable Non-IFRS net income increased by 86% YoY to RMB2,053 million. Despite favorable revenue growth, the Company faced challenges due to unfavorable exchange rate changes, which negatively impacted earnings. Adjusting for currency effects, the revenue growth would have been 79% YoY.
The gross profit margin (GPM) declined to 35.8% in 1Q22 from 37.1% in 1Q21 due to RMB appreciation, while the adjusted Non-IFRS GPM improved to 37.8% YoY. The management maintained its revenue growth guidance of 65–70% YoY for 2022E and 63–65% YoY for 2Q22E, assuming the Omicron outbreak in Shanghai is largely under control by the end of April.
WuXi Chemistry saw a 102% YoY revenue growth, primarily driven by a 139% YoY increase in chemical CDMO services. The Company generated approximately RMB1.5 billion in revenue from commercial COVID-19 projects in 1Q22, with expectations for further growth in QoQ for the rest of 2022. Non-COVID chemical CDMO services also delivered strong growth of 56% YoY, attributed to the unique CRDMO business model.
The CGT CTDMO segment rebounded, growing by 37% YoY in 1Q22 after a 3% YoY decline in 2021. This was due to an expanding project pipeline and the launch of TESSA, a novel AAV manufacturing process. As of Mar 2022, the Company had 14 TESSA evaluation projects, showing strong customer demand. The Company's CDMO pipeline included 1,808 projects as of Mar 2022, up from 1,666 in Dec 2021.
WuXi AppTec plans to invest RMB9–10 billion in Capex for 2022E, with approximately 60% allocated to the chemical CDMO business to meet growing demand.
Revenue and Earnings Growth
| Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | Net Income (RMB mn) | Adj. Non-IFRS Net Income (RMB mn) | EPS (RMB) | Consensus EPS (RMB) | P/E (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY20A | 16,535 | 28% | 2,960 | 3,637 | 1.27 | N/A | 81.75 |
| FY21A | 22,902 | 39% | 5,097 | 5,131 | 1.75 | N/A | 59.45 |
| FY22E | 38,370 | 68% | 7,692 | 8,429 | 2.60 | 2.78 | 39.95 |
| FY23E | 45,369 | 18% | 9,338 | 9,955 | 3.16 | 3.40 | 32.91 |
| FY24E | 59,456 | 31% | 12,267 | 13,148 | 4.15 | 4.29 | 25.05 |
Earnings Revision
| Metric | CMBIGM (RMB mn) | Consensus (RMB mn) | Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 38,370 | 38,270 | 0.26% |
| Gross Profit | 14,231 | 14,694 | -3.15% |
| Operating Profit | 8,232 | 9,293 | -11.42% |
| Net Profit | 7,692 | 8,168 | -8.21% |
| EPS (RMB) | 2.60 | 2.78 | -6.26% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 37.09% | 38.40% | -1.31ppt |
| Operating Margin (%) | 21.45% | 24.28% | -2.83ppt |
| Net Margin (%) | 20.05% | 21.34% | -1.30ppt |
Key Ratios
| Ratio | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin (%) | 38% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 29% | 33% | 28% | 29% | 29% |
| Pre-tax Margin (%) | 20% | 26% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| Net Margin (%) | 18% | 22% | 20% | 21% | 21% |
| Effective Tax Rate (%) | 11% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| ROE (%) | 9% | 13% | 18% | 19% | 21% |
| ROA (%) | 6% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 15% |
Valuation and Target Price
- Target Price (RMB): 185.04 (revised from 188.64)
- Current Price (RMB): 102.45
- 12-Month Return: +80.62% (up/downside)
- DCF Valuation: Equity value is estimated at RMB546,947 million based on a 9-year model with WACC at 9.74% and terminal growth rate at 3.0%.
Analyst Recommendation
- CMBIGM Recommendation: BUY
- Potential Return: Over 15% over next 12 months
Shareholding and Performance
| Shareholder Type | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Ge Li and concerted parties | 17.71% |
| A-share public shareholders | 63.08% |
| H-share public shareholders | 19.21% |
| Performance (12-Month) | Absolute (%) | Relative (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-mth | -10.9% | -2.5% |
| 3-mth | -10.8% | 9.4% |
| 6-mth | -29.7% | -8.3% |
Market and Financial Overview
- Market Cap (RMB mn): 296,865
- Average 3-Month Turnover (RMB mn): 2,825
- 52-Week High/Low (RMB): 172.49 / 81.82
- Total Issued A-shares (mn): 2,564
- Total Issued H-shares (mn): 392
Analysts
- Jill Wu, CFA: (852) 3900 0842 | jillwu@cmbi.com.hk
- Benchen Huang, CFA: (852) 3657 6288 | huangbenchen@cmbi.com.hk
Auditor
- Deloitte
Risk and Disclaimer
- This report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.
- CMBIGM does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.
- The report may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
- The information is provided solely for clients of CMBIGM and its affiliates.
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