战略与国际研究中心-Japan-Chair-Platform_-The-Kan-Government-Is-Stable_3页_124kb

JAPAN CHAIR PLATFORM Summary

Core Content

This document, authored by Kiyo Aburaki and published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analyzes the political stability of the Kan government and its potential impact on U.S.-Japan relations. It highlights the challenges faced by Japan's political landscape, particularly the short-lived governments since 2006, and evaluates the current administration's prospects for long-term stability and improved international cooperation.

Main Points

1. Political Stability of the Kan Government

• Short-lived Governments: Since 2006, Japan has had multiple short-term prime ministers, including Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, and Taro Aso, all from the LDP, due to internal divisions and poor public approval.
• DPJ's Challenges: The DPJ, which took over in 2009, also faces instability, particularly after its poor performance in the Upper House election and unresolved issues like the Futenma base relocation.
• Public Approval: The Kan government has a public approval rating of 32.6%, with disapproval at 48.6%, similar to mid-2010. The disapproval is mainly due to the Senkaku incident and Medvedev's visit to the Northern Territories.
• Opposition Weakness: The LDP and New Komeito lack sufficient public support to challenge the DPJ, and both have incentives to cooperate with the current government to avoid political backlash.

2. Internal Stability of the DPJ

• No Major Power Struggles: The DPJ is unlikely to experience severe internal conflicts. Ichiro Ozawa, a former leader, is not in a position to challenge Kan due to potential legal issues.
• Leadership Support: DPJ members are focused on proving the effectiveness of the political regime change, rather than on short-term electoral success.
• Public Sentiment: A significant majority (70%) of the public supports Kan continuing as prime minister, indicating a level of trust despite current challenges.

3. U.S.-Japan Relations

• Bipartisan Support: The U.S.-Japan alliance enjoys strong public support, with 75% of Japanese considering it important to Asia.
• TPP as a Strategic Move: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) initiative is seen as a positive step for strengthening economic ties with the U.S. and countering perceptions of Japan's decline.
• Futenma as a Key Issue: The relocation of the U.S. base in Okinawa remains a critical challenge. The DPJ has the opportunity to resolve this issue during the first few months of the new governor's term.
• Electoral Implications: If Futenma becomes a major issue in the next general election, it could jeopardize the DPJ's position. Therefore, resolving it is crucial to avoid political fallout.

4. Prospects for Long-Term Stability

• Time to Recover: The Kan government has a two-year and eight-month period without a national election, which can be used to address issues like Futenma and implement economic policies.
• Economic Recovery Focus: The government must focus on economic recovery, as the LDP's failure to cooperate could lead to public dissatisfaction.
• Political Calculations: The DPJ's strategy involves balancing internal consensus with external cooperation, particularly with the LDP and New Komeito, to ensure stability and progress.

Key Information

• Date of Publication: November 10, 2010
• Author: Kiyo Aburaki
• Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
• Survey Data:
  • 89% of Japanese are concerned about China's diplomatic pressure.
  • 75% believe the U.S.-Japan alliance is important to Asia.
  • 71% support deepening the alliance to address Senkaku issues.
• Futenma Timeline:
  • The Okinawa gubernatorial election is on November 28.
  • The new governor will have an opportunity to push for a relocation outside Okinawa.
• TPP Initiative:
  • Announced in a Diet speech in October 2010.
  • Supported by various political parties and business groups.

Conclusion

The Kan government, despite its current challenges, is more stable than it appears and has the potential to strengthen U.S.-Japan relations. By addressing key issues like Futenma and advancing initiatives such as the TPP, the DPJ can build a more stable political foundation and improve its standing both domestically and internationally.