2011年-世界发展银行全球_Formulas_and_Flexibility_in_Trade_Negotiations___Sensitive_Agricultural_Products_in_the_World_Trade_Organizations_Doha_Agenda_20页_258kb

Summary of "Formulas and Flexibility in Trade Negotiations: Sensitive Agricultural Products in the World Trade Organization's Doha Agenda"

Core Content

This paper examines the impact of sensitive-product flexibilities on agricultural trade in the context of the WTO's Doha Agenda negotiations. It evaluates how the use of these flexibilities—allowing smaller or zero tariff reductions for certain products—can influence average tariffs, economic welfare, and market access. The study challenges conventional ad hoc methods for identifying sensitive products, such as the highest-bound-tariff rule, and proposes a more rigorous approach based on political-economy models.

Main Views

• Tariff Flexibilities: Trade negotiations often involve large cuts in high tariffs, with exceptions for politically sensitive products. These flexibilities are used to reduce the political cost of tariff reductions.

• Ad Hoc Methods Limit Accuracy: Approaches like the highest-bound-tariff rule are criticized for underestimating the impact of sensitive-product provisions on average tariffs and welfare. They may lead to misleading assessments of market access gains.

• Rigorous Model for Ex Ante Assessment: The paper introduces a model that accounts for the political-economy preferences of policymakers, using a weighted sum of lobbying contributions and social welfare. This model helps better estimate the implications of sensitive-product flexibilities.

• Impact on Market Access and Welfare: Even a small percentage of products (e.g., 2%) classified as sensitive can significantly reduce the effectiveness of tariff-cutting formulas, leading to adverse effects on economic welfare. However, the impact on market access is smaller, likely due to the mercantilist focus of the negotiations.

• Formula-Based Tariff Reductions: The Doha Agenda uses a tiered formula approach for tariff reductions, with different rates for different tariff bands. For example, industrial countries face 75% cuts on tariffs above 75%, while developing countries face 40% cuts on tariffs above 130%.

Key Information

Tariff-Cutting Formulas

• Tiered Formula: The G-20's tiered formula includes four bands and three inflection points.
• Industrial Countries: Up to 75% tariff cuts on tariffs above 75%.
• Developing Countries: Up to 40% tariff cuts on tariffs above 130%.
• Tariff Caps: Industrial countries are capped at 100% and developing countries at 150%.
• Least Developed Countries (LDCs): Not required to commit to any reductions.

Sensitive Product Flexibilities

• Definition: Sensitive products are those that may be exempted from full tariff reductions.
• Selection Rules: The paper evaluates several methods for selecting sensitive products, including:
  • Simultaneous selection (Sens 2)
  • One-product-at-a-time selection with CES preferences (Sens 2-simple)
  • One-product-at-a-time selection with estimated elasticities (Sens 2-elas)
  • Highest bound tariff rule (Sens 2-highest bound)
  • Highest applied tariff rule (Sens 2-highest applied)
  • Tariff loss minimization (Sens 2-tariff losses)
  • Excluding "sin" products (Sens 2-sin)
  • 4% sensitive product selection (Sens 4)
  • By share of imports (Sens 2-trade)

Results and Implications

• Impact on Average Tariffs: The results show that allowing even 2% of products to be classified as sensitive can significantly reduce the overall tariff cuts, especially in countries with high initial tariffs.
• Economic Welfare: The analysis indicates that treating sensitive products as exceptions can have a sharply adverse effect on economic welfare, as it limits the potential gains from tariff reductions.
• Market Access: While market access is also affected, the impact is less severe than on welfare, possibly due to the mercantilist nature of the negotiations.
• Modeling Approach: The paper uses a quadratic trade expenditure function and a Taylor-Series expansion to estimate the effects of tariff changes, ensuring a globally concave objective function for policymakers.

Data and Methodology

• Database: The analysis is based on the MAcMapHS6 v1.1 database, which contains applied protection data for 2001.
• Elasticity Estimation: The study uses the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) function and individual-product elasticities from Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga (2008) to estimate import demand responses.
• Ex Ante Evaluation: The model allows for ex ante assessment of the impact of sensitive-product flexibilities across more than 150 WTO members.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that ad hoc approaches to identifying sensitive products, such as the highest-bound-tariff rule, significantly underestimate the real impact of these flexibilities on average agricultural tariffs and economic welfare. A more rigorous, model-based approach is necessary for accurate ex ante evaluation of trade agreements, especially for small developing countries. The analysis also highlights the importance of considering both the initial tariff levels and the elasticity of demand when assessing the effects of tariff reforms.