2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Regional_Balkans_Infrastructure_Study_Update___Enhancing_Regional_Connectivity_Identifying_Impediments_and_Priority_Remedies_66页_2mb

REBIS Update Summary: Enhancing Regional Connectivity in South East Europe

Core Content

The Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study (REBIS) Update aims to enhance regional connectivity in South East Europe (SEE) by identifying and addressing both non-physical and physical impediments to transport and trade. The study is part of the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and was prepared by the World Bank in collaboration with Systema Transport Planning & Engineering Consultants Ltd and WYG. The findings are intended to inform the development of a Priority Action Plan (PAP) for the SEETO Comprehensive Network, which is a key infrastructure initiative for the region.

The report includes an assessment of the 2003 REBIS traffic projections, which were found to be inaccurate in some areas. It also presents updated 2030 traffic projections based on two economic growth scenarios: low/moderate and moderate/high. These projections are used to identify current and future capacity bottlenecks in the transport network. Additionally, the report provides a preliminary economic efficiency analysis to prioritize interventions and measures.

Main Report Structure

1. Introduction

• The REBIS Update is part of the effort to develop the South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO) Comprehensive Network.
• The goal is to integrate the network into the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) and strengthen underlying transport planning systems.
• The study is funded by the European Western Balkans Joint Fund and supported by the European Commission (EC) and EU institutions.

2. Assessment of the 2003 REBIS Traffic Projections

• The 2003 REBIS model projected future traffic based on economic variables, but these projections were found to be inaccurate.
• Some areas showed underestimation by over 100%, while others showed overestimation due to the 2007 economic crisis.
• The update includes a comparison of the original projections with actual traffic data to better inform future planning.

3. Non-Physical Impediments to Transport and Trade

• Non-physical impediments include regulatory, institutional, and procedural constraints at borders and transport corridors.
• These impediments significantly affect transport costs, supply chain reliability, and business competitiveness.
• The report emphasizes that reducing non-physical barriers is more cost-effective and yields higher economic returns than infrastructure development alone.

4. Traffic Projections for 2030

• Two economic growth scenarios were considered: low/moderate and moderate/high.
• The study developed transport demand models for each mode (road, rail, maritime, and air) and projected traffic for 2030 accordingly.
• These projections are used to assess the current and future capacity needs of the network.

5. Capacity Assessment: Physical Bottlenecks

• The report identified current and future bottlenecks in the road, rail, maritime, and air sectors.
• It suggests that rehabilitation and maintenance are critical for preserving the value of existing infrastructure.
• Upgrading and new construction are necessary for some sections of the network, depending on the economic growth scenario.

6. Preliminary Economic Efficiency Analysis

• A preliminary economic analysis was conducted to evaluate the cost-benefit of proposed interventions.
• This analysis helps in prioritizing projects based on their Net Present Value (NPV) and economic returns.
• Projects with high positive NPV are considered high priority, while those with negative or marginal returns are classified as low or medium priority.

7. Priority Action Plan

• The Priority Action Plan outlines key interventions to address both non-physical and physical impediments.
• The plan includes soft measures (such as regulatory and institutional reforms) and hard infrastructure projects.
• The total cost of the proposed interventions from 2016–2020 is estimated at €8,140 million, with an average annual cost of €1,630 million.

Key Points

Main Views

• Non-physical impediments are a major barrier to efficient transport and trade in the region.
• Physical infrastructure is also critical, but the emphasis is on rehabilitation and maintenance rather than new construction.
• Economic growth scenarios significantly influence the prioritization of infrastructure projects.
• Cooperation among regional participants and EU institutions is essential for the successful implementation of the PAP.

Key Information

• Traffic Projections:

  • For low/moderate growth, 16% of the road network and 19% of the rail network may require upgrades.
  • For moderate/high growth, 25–33% of the rail network and 25–30% of the road network may require interventions before 2030.

• Non-Physical Interventions:

  • Strengthening CEFTA and SEETO coordination.
  • Improving customs and border procedures.
  • Implementing IT systems for customs and transport.
  • Enhancing inter-modal transport.
  • Supporting Single Window procedures.
  • Establishing AEO status and providing capacity building.
  • Improving administrative capacity in transport and safety agencies.

• Physical Interventions:

  • Asset preservation and rehabilitation are prioritized for the road and rail networks.
  • Upgrading and new construction are needed for specific bottlenecks.
  • Port expansions are required for certain maritime and inland waterway (IWW) ports to meet future demand.

• Economic Efficiency:

  • High priority interventions are those with a high positive NPV and are likely to be economically viable.
  • Medium priority interventions have marginal returns and require further analysis.
  • Low priority projects are those with large negative returns and should not be pursued.

• Regional Participants:

  • The SEETO Steering Committee includes representatives from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo.
  • Croatia, a former member, is also considered in the analysis due to its historical involvement.

• Costs and Benefits:

  • The estimated cost of non-physical interventions is €327 million (up to 2020).
  • Economic benefits are calculated based on time and operating cost savings, but safety and environmental impacts are not considered in the preliminary analysis.

Priority Action Plan Summary

Legend

• Air – Air transport
• C/BC – Customs and border crossings
• IM – Inter/multimodal transport
• Road – Road transport
• Rail – Rail transport
• M/IWW – Maritime and/or Inland Waterways

Conclusion

The REBIS Update provides a comprehensive assessment of the transport and trade infrastructure in South East Europe. It highlights the importance of non-physical interventions in reducing border crossing times, improving logistics efficiency, and increasing regional competitiveness. The report also outlines physical infrastructure needs, emphasizing maintenance and rehabilitation over new construction where possible. The Priority Action Plan is a key output of the study, identifying the most urgent and economically viable interventions for improving regional connectivity.