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3Q'25 Commodities Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the commodities market outlook for the third quarter of 2025 and beyond, focusing on key macroeconomic factors, price forecasts, and investment recommendations.

Main Viewpoints

1. Macroeconomic Outlook

• Challenges and Risks:
  • High US interest rates are constraining global growth and employment data.
  • Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran/Israel conflict, are increasing risks.
  • US tariffs are expected to increase inflation and affect US growth, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.
• Opportunities and Positives:
  • The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is expected to pass before the July 4 recess, providing a net stimulus to US and global growth.
  • The OBBBA could reduce downside risks to US growth and negatively impact gold prices.
  • The US budget deficit is not a major concern if the OBBBA passes, as the bond market is stable and the bill is broadly budget-neutral.
  • US government interest costs have decreased in 1Q'25, suggesting potential for more fiscal flexibility.
• Growth Outlook for 2026:
  • Global growth is expected to skew to the upside, leading to a sell-off in gold and a buy opportunity in aluminium and copper.
  • The Trump put is anticipated to influence growth and risk sentiment, especially as mid-terms approach.
  • US-China trade polarization could be bullish for China's growth, as it seeks new export markets and invests in AI, datacenters, and decarbonization.

2. Precious Metals

• Gold:
  • Prices are expected to consolidate between $3,100-$3,500/oz in 3Q'25.
  • The rally has been driven by investment demand rather than central bank buying.
  • We expect gold to fall by >20% by late 2025 and 2026 as growth sentiment improves.
  • Current gold prices are disconnected from miner margins, with 5-year forward prices at ~$4,000/oz.
  • Producers are advised to take insurance against prices falling below $3,600-$3,700/oz.
• Silver:
  • Expected to rise by 4% in the short term and 10% in the medium term.
  • Prices are likely to remain neutral to bullish as investment demand continues.
• Platinum and Palladium:
  • Platinum is expected to face a 25% Section 232 import levy, potentially leading to a $200/oz increase.
  • Palladium is also under threat from tariffs, with a likely 25%-50% rate.
  • Investment funds are currently cautious, with interest in EUAs at 17k lots, down from 60k in early 2025.

3. Energy

• EUA Carbon:
  • Expected to rise to €95/t by year-end, representing a 30% increase.
  • Tighter EU ETS balances and reduced wind/hydro output are driving demand for fossil fuels.
  • The 3Q'25 auction schedule is likely to be higher, but supply of allowances is shrinking.
• Oil and Gas:
  • Brent and WTI prices are expected to decline by 5-14% in the short term.
  • Natural Gas prices are forecasted to rise by 3-36% over the next year.
  • The Middle East (ME) supply risks are a concern, but de-escalation is expected to lower oil prices by ~$10.
  • OPEC+ is likely to increase spare capacity, which could support global growth and reduce inflationary pressures.

4. Industrial and Battery Metals

• Aluminium:
  • Structurally bullish with potential for 20-40% long-term upside.
  • Supply growth is limited due to power constraints and China's capacity cap.
  • Demand from robotics, AI/datacenters, and decarbonization is expected to drive prices.
  • Prices are expected to rise to ~$3,000/t in the medium to long term.
• Copper:
  • Expected to face a 25% Section 232 tariff in 3Q'25, which may lead to a 20% premium over LME prices.
  • Copper prices are likely to weaken temporarily after tariff clarity.
  • A copper bull market is expected to re-emerge in 2026 as global growth improves.
• Other Metals:
  • Zinc, Nickel, Tin, and Lithium Hydroxide are also under threat from Section 232 tariffs.
  • Platinum and Palladium are likely to be affected by tariffs, with potential for price increases.
  • The CME-LME price differential for copper is expected to widen due to the tariff.

5. Bulk Commodities

• Iron Ore:
  • Prices are expected to decline by 5-11% in the short to medium term.
• Thermal and Coking Coal:
  • Prices are forecasted to remain relatively stable with slight increases.
• Agriculture:
  • Sugar, Coffee, and Cocoa are expected to see price increases.
  • Corn and Soybeans are likely to remain neutral to bullish.

Key Information

• Gold:
  • Current price: ~$3,415/oz
  • Short-term forecast: ~$3,300/oz
  • Medium-term forecast: ~$2,800/oz
  • Long-term forecast: ~$2,500-2,700/oz
• EUA Carbon:
  • Current price: €75/t
  • Short-term forecast: €57/t
  • Medium-term forecast: €85/t
  • Long-term forecast: €115/t
• Aluminium:
  • Current price: ~$2,503/t
  • Short-term forecast: ~$2,450/t
  • Medium-term forecast: ~$2,650/t
  • Long-term forecast: ~$3,000/t
• Copper:
  • Current price: ~$9,719/t
  • Short-term forecast: ~$8,800/t
  • Medium-term forecast: ~$9,500/t
  • Long-term forecast: ~$10,000/t

Investment Recommendations

• Gold: Sell rallies and take insurance against price declines.
• Aluminium and Copper: Buy as they are expected to benefit from improved global growth and reduced trade risks.
• EUAs: Buy as they are expected to rise significantly due to tighter balances and increased demand for fossil fuels.
• Section 232 Tariffs: Watch for impacts on copper and critical minerals, with a likely 25% tariff rate.
• Investor Sentiment: Expect increased interest in aluminium and copper as growth sentiment improves.