2003-11-04-皮尤-The_2004_Political_Landscape_152页_583kb

2004 Political Landscape Summary

Core Content

The 2004 Pew Research Center Political Landscape report highlights the evenly divided but increasingly polarized nature of the American electorate. Despite the GOP's gains since 2000, the nation remains roughly split between Republicans, Democrats, and independents, with the partisan divide in values widening over time.

Main Views

• Partisan Division: The electorate is nearly evenly split, with 33% identifying as Republicans, 34% as Democrats, and 33% as independents or other. This represents a shift from the previous Democratic advantage.
• Polarization: Political polarization has increased significantly, particularly in areas like national security, business regulation, and the social safety net.
• National Security: Republicans are more supportive of an assertive national security policy, especially regarding the use of force and holding suspected terrorists without trial. Democrats, particularly after the Iraq War, have become more critical of such policies. The partisan gap on military strength as a basis for peace has widened to 25 points.
• Economic and Social Policies: Democrats are more inclined to support increased government aid for the poor, even at the cost of a larger deficit. Republicans, on the other hand, are more satisfied with their financial situation.
• Religion and Politics: White evangelical Protestants have increasingly aligned with the Republican Party, reflecting a significant shift in religious demographics. This has contributed to a wider gap in religious commitment between Republicans and Democrats.
• Cynicism and Trust: While overall cynicism about government remains stable, Republicans are more trusting than Democrats and independents. The 2000 election did not significantly affect public trust in the system.
• Business and Regulation: Business scandals have had a limited impact on public opinion, with most Americans still believing in the importance of business to national strength. However, the perception of corporate power has become more polarized, with Democrats more likely to see it as a problem.

Key Findings

• Party Affiliation Gains: The GOP has made significant gains, especially among white Catholics, white evangelical Protestants, and Hispanics, but has lost ground among African Americans.
• Iraq War Impact: The war has deepened the partisan divide on national security, with Democrats increasingly opposing it and Republicans largely supporting it.
• Economic Views: Independents and Democrats have become more negative about their financial situations, while Republicans remain as satisfied as before.
• Social Issues: There is growing acceptance of interracial dating, but significant divides persist on how to address racial discrimination and the role of the social safety net.
• Immigration: Support for tighter immigration controls has increased, particularly among Republicans, but remains relatively modest overall.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2004 political landscape reflects a highly polarized society where core political values have diverged between the two major parties. While the nation is evenly divided in terms of party affiliation, the ideological and value-based divide is growing. The Iraq War has played a significant role in deepening this divide, particularly in national security and foreign policy. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party has gained strength in advocating for the social safety net and opposing corporate power, while Republicans have become more assertive in their policies and more aligned with religious groups. The report underscores the importance of understanding these shifting dynamics as they shape the upcoming presidential election.