2023-03-28-国家经济和社会研究所-英国的纵向和横向不匹配_毕业生的技能适合他们的工作吗_39页_419kb

Summary of "Vertical and Horizontal Mismatch in the UK: Are Graduates' Skills a Good Fit for Their Jobs?"

Core Content

This paper explores the issue of vertical and horizontal skill mismatch among UK graduates, examining how their skills align with their jobs and its impact on wages. The study introduces a new objective measure of horizontal mismatch, called the field intensity (fit) index, to better understand the relationship between graduates' degree fields and the occupations they are employed in.

The authors highlight that despite the increasing number of graduates in the UK, approximately 30% are employed in non-graduate jobs, and nearly 33% work in fields unrelated to their degree subjects. These figures indicate a significant skill mismatch, which may contribute to the UK's productivity slowdown and the lack of necessary skills for the fourth industrial revolution.

Main Points

• Vertical Mismatch: Refers to the situation where a graduate has a higher level of education than required for the job.

  • 31.22% of graduates in the UK are vertically mismatched.
  • The wage penalty for vertical mismatch is higher than for horizontal mismatch.
  • Overqualified graduates generally earn less than those in graduate jobs.
  • STEM graduates experience lower vertical mismatch (21.45%) compared to non-STEM (35.69%).

• Horizontal Mismatch: Refers to the situation where a graduate's skills are not aligned with the skills required in their occupation, even if they are employed in a graduate job.

  • 32.73% of graduates are horizontally mismatched.
  • This type of mismatch is associated with underutilization of skills, which can lead to significant human capital loss.
  • Non-STEM graduates have a lower horizontal mismatch (30.42%) compared to STEM (37.79%).

• Wage Penalty:

  • The wage penalty for horizontal mismatch is lower than for vertical mismatch.
  • However, the penalty increases for graduates who are both vertically and horizontally mismatched, especially those with low unobserved skills.
  • The wage penalty is higher for low-skilled overqualified graduates compared to those with higher skill levels.

• Unobserved Skills:

  • The study accounts for unobservable skills (such as cognitive abilities and motivation) which are not captured by formal education alone.
  • These skills can affect the degree of mismatch and wage outcomes.
  • Using panel data techniques, instrumental variables, and numeracy/literacy scores, the authors attempt to correct for these biases.

• Data and Methodology:

  • The analysis is based on the 2017 UK Annual Population Survey (APS).
  • The fit index is calculated by comparing the proportion of graduates in a particular field within an occupation to the overall proportion of graduates in that field.
  • This approach allows for an objective and replicable measure of horizontal mismatch, avoiding biases from self-reported data.

• Key Findings:

  • Recent graduates (those who graduated in the past 5 years) have the highest mismatch rates.
  • Female graduates are more likely to be mismatched than male graduates.
  • STEM degrees are more specialized, leading to lower vertical mismatch but higher horizontal mismatch.
  • The wage penalty is more severe for graduates who are both vertically and horizontally mismatched, especially if they have low unobserved skills.

• Implications:

  • The study contributes to the debate on skill mismatch in the UK.
  • It provides new evidence on the types of mismatch and their wage consequences.
  • The fit index can be used for global analysis, facilitating cross-country comparisons.
  • The findings are important for education policy and suggest a need for reforms in the UK university system.

Key Information

• Objective Fit Index: Introduced to measure horizontal mismatch based on the intensity of degree field use in occupations.
• Skill Heterogeneity: Graduates may have appropriate skills for a job but be mismatched due to field misalignment.
• Wage Effects:
  • Vertical mismatch has a higher wage penalty.
  • Horizontal mismatch is less penalizing, especially in high-skilled occupations.
  • Both types of mismatch contribute to inefficient human capital allocation.
• Data Sources: Uses data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Annual Population Survey (APS).
• Policy Relevance: Highlights the importance of addressing skill mismatch for improving productivity and wage outcomes in the UK.

Conclusion

The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of vertical and horizontal skill mismatch among UK graduates, using a new and objective measure. It shows that while the number of graduates has increased, the alignment of skills with jobs remains a critical issue. The findings suggest that skill mismatch is not only a wage issue but also a productivity concern, and that unobserved skills play a significant role in determining the degree of mismatch. The proposed fit index offers a valuable tool for future research and policy analysis.