2023-02-01-莱坊-Kenya_Market_Update_2nd_Half_2022_8页_439kb

报告摘要

The Kenyan economy grew at approximately 5.5% in 2022, a slight deceleration from 7.5% in 2021. Key factors included prolonged drought, food insecurity, and the August elections.
Inflation, as measured by CPI, reached nearly 9.1% by December 2022, persistently above the Central Bank of Kenya's (CBK) 6% ceiling. Global factors like Ukraine conflict also contributed.
GDP growth is expected to further slow marginally, while Sub-Saharan Africa overall is projected at 3.6% growth.

Prime Residential: Pricing stabilised after a previous dip; prime prices saw increases in H1 and Q4 2022, driven by economic recovery, resumption of travel, and improved tourism arrivals. Qombea subdivisions featured prominently.
Prime Commercial: Prices stabilised around KES 70 per sq. ft. for industrial space. Office sector recovery is ongoing, with prime prime office rents steady at $1.20/sq. ft. (USD) and high occupancy (74%). However, prime prime retail rents increased significantly to $5.00/sq. ft. (USD), reflecting recovery but undercutting some malls due to oversupply.
Residential market remains constrained by lack of quality inventory at affordable price points.

Capital Gains Tax: Increased from 5% to 15% effective 1st January 2023.
Diaspora Remittances: Increased significantly in 2022, bolstered by digital transfer services.
Land Registry: Land registration fully unified under a new system in Nairobi County to curb fraud and boost efficiency.
Infrastructure: Significant spending planned/happening: Standard Gauge Railway extension, Kenya-Sudan oil pipeline, Konza Technopolis, Mombasa-Mombasa Port, and Nairobi-Nyali roads. Port activity returned to Mombasa.
Green Transition: IFC partners with KCB and Equity Bank for green financing; COP27 urges ESG integration; Nairobi exploring green bond issuance.
SEZs: Several SEZs in development (Turkish Industrial Zone Naivasha, Dongo Kundu).

Cement & Construction: Activity rose as construction resumed post-COVID. Building plans approvals and cement consumption showed positive trends.
Currency: KES weakened against the USD.
Equities: NSE value fell over 20% year-on-year due to capital flight.
Interest Rates: CBK significantly raised lending rates (from 7.5% to 8.75%) in response to inflation.
REITs: New REIT launches, I-REIT was the latest; high yields (appx 8%) but higher returns projected from mid-2023 with new taxation regime.
Affordable Housing: Government allocation (KES 27.7 billion) planned for affordable projects, but implementation faced hurdles (court ruling vs pension-backed mortgages, land transfers required to be done under new system).

Roads: Expressway, Ngong-Lang'ata, Naivasha road repairs, Rironi-Kitum Summitt.
Railways: Standard Gauge Railway phase extension (Malaba-Kisumu).
Airports: Terminal 1B reconstruction complete.
Energy/Water: Increased focus post COP27; cement production also rising (replacing depleted stock).

展开完整摘要