2025-06-03-Jefferies-整车货运数据第一卷_餐饮服务与食品杂货配送趋势_13页_842kb

Equity Research: USA Food Retail & Distribution - June 2025 Summary

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June 3, 2025

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📊 1. Data Covered

• Monthly data provides the first look for foodservice and grocery distribution trends.
• Featured datasets help clients access high-quality alternatives and traditional data sources simultaneously including:
  • Black Box - Restaurant Distribution Trends
  • OpenTable, Placer.ai, Nielsen, Kalibri Labs, BLS, Morning Consult.

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📈 2. April 2025 Market Trends

• General Improvements:
  Overall, most channels showed signs of improvement from recent February lows including a 0.4% YoY increase in restaurant sales.

• Restaurant Segment Breakdown:

  • Fine Dining: Grew sales YoY (+3.4%), traffic YoY (+0.3%) and restaurant reservations YoY (+10%). High-end demand remains strong.
  • Chain performance exceeded independent trends.
  • Restaurant industry sales have recovered through better business models especially casual dining (+1.7% sales in April).

• Leisure & Travel:
  Hotel RevPar saw a jump in April (+2-4 points). Consumer travel intent increased as per the Morning Consult survey.

• C-Store Sales:
  Total sales increased 0.4% year-on-year in April despite lower units (-2.0%). Competitive conditions also remain stable.

• Grocery Channel:
  Unit and volume numbers softened slightly compared to March but demand trends fluctuate occasionally due to holidays and weather.

• Inflation:
  Both foodservice and grocery inflation continue to track at moderate rates, however the gap between food away from home and other segments is widening.

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💰 3. Equity Valuations & Analyst Recommendations

• Equities identified strongly. Recommended stocks:

  • Performance Food Group Co (PFGC): BUY
  • Sysco Corp (SYY): BUY
  • The Chefs’ Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF): BUY
  • US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD): BUY
  • United Natural Foods (UNFI): HOLD
  • SpartanNash (SPTN): HOLD

• Forward price targets and projected return percentages available per company.

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📄 4. Disclaimer and Contact Information

• Disclaimer:
  This report is intended for Jefferies clients only and should not be distributed or used as investment advice without professional guidance.

• Contact Information:
  Alexander Slagle, CFA
  Equity Analyst
  Contact: (415) 229-1508, aslagle@jefferies.com.
  Andy Barish, Equity Analyst
  Contact: (415) 229-1524, abarish@jefferies.com.
  Marshall Pittman, Equity Associate
  Contact: (415) 229-1467, mpittman@jefferies.com.
  Ivan Yu, Equity Associate
  Contact: (415) 229-1441, iyu@jefferies.com.

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💎 Key Takeaways

• Consumer demand continues to improve, supporting sales growth in restaurants and hospitality.
• Favorable inflation conditions help maintain pricing power across foodservice and grocery channels.
• Black Box, OpenTable, and Placer.ai provide granular insights into market trend shifts.
• Equity Research identifies strong growth and value plays across the Food Retail & Distribution sector.

For more details, see the complete report on [[Jefferies.com]] (link provided is a placeholder).