IMF-过低持续时间过长：超宽松货币政策的长期实施会产生有害影响吗？（英）-2023.5-32页_3mb

Too Low for Too Long: Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy and Zombification

• Background: The paper examines whether extended periods of ultra-easy monetary policy in advanced economies harms economic growth through "zombification" (survival of weak firms due to low interest rates). Motivated by ultra-easy policies during the 2008 crisis, COVID-19, and post-financial crises (e.g., Japan, Eurozone), it assesses both benefits and unintended consequences like resource misallocation, low growth, and increased financial vulnerability.

• Key Empirical Findings:

  • Zombification (defined by low profitability and high debt) increases during recessions and extended low interest rates.
  • Expansionary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) reduces zombification, but prolonged ultra-easy policy correlates with higher zombification and resource misallocation.
  • Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are more likely to become zombie firms due to less dynamism and sectoral factors.
  • Evidence is robust across firm-level and macroeconomic analyses, with stronger effects in Japan and the Eurozone.
  • Spillover effects harm healthy firms by reducing their access to investment and market shares.

• Implications for Growth: Zombification negatively impacts economic growth by hindering creative destruction and resource reallocation, with employment and profit reductions estimated at 12% on average for non-zombie firms.

• Financial Stability: Banking sector risks exist (e.g., "evergreening" problematic loans), but reforms post-GFC have reduced vulnerabilities. Ultra-easy policy may persistently risk low growth and financial vulnerability upon tightening.

• Conclusion: A tradeoff exists between short-term countercyclical gains and long-term zombification; policymakers should be cautious during future recessions, as effects are pronounced in low-growth economies.